[2026 KOSPI 5000]③ETF: Employ a 'Barbell Strategy' Combining AI and Policy Beneficiaries

Semiconductors Enter the Era of Overwhelming Profits, Surpassing Growth Potential
The First Year of Physical AI: Expansion into Power, Robotics, and Secondary Batteries
Strengthening Defense with Financial and Dividend Stock ETFs

The core keyword that will define the Korean stock market and the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market in 2026 is the “materialization of artificial intelligence (AI).” The recent debate over an AI bubble, which had heated up the market, is now receding, and a differentiated market is expected to take hold, with capital flowing into companies and industries that generate real profits. The asset management industry has proposed a “multi-dimensional barbell strategy” that centers portfolios on semiconductors, combines essential power infrastructure, robotics, and software necessary for the real-world implementation of AI, and includes dividend stocks expected to benefit from policy support.

Semiconductors: Profit Estimates Continue to Rise

Major domestic asset management companies unanimously agree that the semiconductor sector will continue to lead the stock market next year. However, the outlook has shifted from “expectation” to “conviction.” According to Samsung Asset Management, the total operating profit forecast for all listed companies on the Korea Exchange next year is estimated to approach 400 trillion won, an increase of about 100 trillion won compared to this year. Semiconductors are expected to account for as much as 80% of the total profit growth. This suggests that the expansion in AI demand is not just a temporary trend but is translating into tangible results that fundamentally change corporate fundamentals.

Samsung Asset Management recommended “KODEX AI Semiconductor,” which represents the essence of Korea’s semiconductor ecosystem, and “KODEX US Semiconductor,” which focuses on global leaders, as promising ETFs. Kim Dohyeong, Head of ETF Consulting at Samsung Asset Management, explained, “As AI competition accelerates, semiconductors become an indispensable and irreplaceable industry. Since 2026 is expected to be a period of continuously rising profit estimates, a strategy of increasing allocations during market corrections is effective.”

Mirae Asset Global Investments also warned of the high volatility of small- and mid-cap AI stocks, predicting a “winner-takes-all” trend centered on large-cap stocks with proven performance. The company highlighted “TIGER Semiconductor TOP10,” which demonstrates robust fundamentals even in volatile markets, and “TIGER US Philadelphia AI Semiconductor Nasdaq,” which follows the global standard, as core products. A Mirae Asset official analyzed, “Even within the AI theme, the distinction between winners and losers will intensify. Ultimately, top companies with overwhelming capital and technological power are likely to capture the market premium.”

Korea Investment Management focused on the trickle-down effects of increased capital expenditures (CAPEX) by hyperscalers. Nam Yongsoo, Head of ETF Management at Korea Investment Management, said, “AI infrastructure investments by global big tech companies are expected to grow at an average annual rate of over 40% through 2030.” The company included “ACE Global Semiconductor TOP4 PLUS” and “ACE AI Core Industry” in its lineup, which benefit from the entire supply chain.

Within semiconductors, the fastest-growing segment is undoubtedly high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Hanwha Asset Management, through “PLUS Global HBM Semiconductor,” is focusing on the qualitative changes in the memory industry. Yoon Jungil, ETF Portfolio Manager at Hanwha Asset Management, emphasized, “Nvidia’s next-generation GPU ‘Rubin Ultra’ will see its memory wafer consumption soar by as much as 139% compared to previous products. As memory companies concentrate production capacity on HBM, which is more technically demanding, even the supply of general-purpose memory will tighten, leading to a prolonged ‘supercycle.’”

Next year will mark the beginning of AI’s expansion from the virtual world to the physical world-so-called “Physical AI.” Samsung Asset Management identified investment opportunities in the “power bottleneck” that is the biggest obstacle to data center expansion. The company proposed “KODEX US AI Power Core Infrastructure,” which invests across the entire power value chain, including generators, transmission networks, and cooling systems, as a portfolio alternative.

In the robotics sector, Hanwha Asset Management’s “PLUS Global Humanoid Active” stands out. As humanoid robots, which go beyond simple assembly robots to replace human labor, enter the commercialization stage, the value of related parts and software companies is expected to be re-evaluated.

KB Asset Management predicts that the spread of AI will drive a “second leap” for the secondary battery industry. As the number of mobile AI devices such as robots, drones, and humanoids increases, high-performance, high-efficiency batteries become essential. The explosive demand for energy storage systems (ESS) to support the power consumption of AI data centers is leading to a re-interpretation of secondary batteries as the “energy source for AI.” Reflecting this trend, KB Asset Management proposed “RISE Secondary Battery TOP10.”

Synergy from Interest Rate Cuts and Tax Benefits

The growth of hardware inevitably leads to the spread of software. Shinhan Asset Management believes that the center of gravity in AI investment will gradually shift toward software. Noting that AI platform companies such as Palantir are now demonstrating full-fledged profit models, the company selected “SOL US AI Software” as a promising ETF. The analysis is that the appeal of growth stocks will increase further in a period of interest rate cuts.

Policy changes from a macro perspective are also a key variable for ETF investment. KB Asset Management sees the easing of US financial regulations as an opportunity and highlighted the potential benefits of “RISE US Bank TOP10.” The logic is that a combination of interest rate cuts and regulatory easing will maximize the capital efficiency of bank stocks.

Dividend ETFs are cited as a “shield” to control market volatility. The planned introduction of separate taxation on dividend income and the Value-up policy to enhance corporate value are decisive factors boosting the appeal of high-dividend stocks. “RISE Large Cap High Dividend 10TR,” “SOL Korea High Dividend,” and “TIGER Korea Dividend Dow Jones” are mentioned as beneficiaries for investors seeking both tax benefits and capital gains.

In summary, the asset management industry sees “combination” as the key to ETF investment in the new year. The structure is to secure offensive strength with semiconductor and physical AI ETFs, while building defense with dividend ETFs and financial stocks. An asset management industry official advised, “This is a year when it is more important to precisely combine industrial fundamentals and policy changes than to simply follow theme trends. The barbell strategy, which uses AI and policy beneficiaries as dual pillars, is the most realistic alternative to overcome market volatility and maximize returns.”