Announcement of 2027 Medical School Enrollment Quota Estimation Postponed to Next Week

Further Discussion on the Impact of AI Productivity and Other Factors

The committee responsible for determining the 2027 medical school enrollment quota has decided to postpone its announcement by one week.

On December 22, the Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee (the Committee) held its 11th meeting in Seoul, but reportedly failed to reach a conclusion. Initially, the Committee had planned to announce the estimation results and set the 2027 medical school enrollment quota at the end of this meeting. However, the members agreed to hold an additional meeting next week.

Yonhap News Agency

The members selected two final estimation models based on the appropriate analysis units (per capita medical service utilization) and estimation methods previously discussed by the Committee. They also discussed how to apply scenarios reflecting changes in artificial intelligence (AI) productivity and the number of working days for physicians.

Kim Taehyun, President of the Korean Health Economic Policy Association and chair of the Committee, said after the meeting, "Today, we mainly discussed in detail how to incorporate various scenarios based on the two basic models, and our goal is to reach a conclusion next week."

According to materials from the 11th Committee meeting, the members applied variables such as improvements in AI productivity and reductions in working days to the final models. They projected that by 2040, the supply of physicians would be around 133,000, while demand would range from 142,000 to 169,000. The estimated shortage of physicians, therefore, would be between 10,000 and 36,000, depending on the model and scenario applied.

Chairman Kim stated, "Nothing has been finalized yet regarding a physician shortage," adding, "We will provide further details next week once a final conclusion is reached."

Previously, in the wake of debates over increasing medical school quotas and conflicts between the government and the medical community, the government established the Committee, including representatives of suppliers, consumers, and academia, and planned to decide the medical school enrollment quota for the 2027 academic year and beyond by the end of this year.

The number of medical school admissions, which had increased to 4,567 for the 2025 academic year, was restored to 3,058 for the 2026 admissions currently underway. The quota for the 2027 academic year and beyond will be determined through discussions in the Committee and the Health and Medical Policy Review Committee, followed by consultations between the Ministry of Health and Welfare and the Ministry of Education.