Arthur Hayes Predicts "$80,000?$100,000 Range by Year-End"
"Fed's RMP Is Essentially QE... New High by March Next Year"
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, continues to face downward pressure without a clear rebound momentum. However, there is a bullish outlook suggesting that Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 within the next 100 days. Some analysts argue that the US Federal Reserve's liquidity policy could serve as a catalyst. Nevertheless, major investment banks are maintaining a cautious stance, sequentially lowering their target prices, highlighting the significant divergence in market perspectives.
Hayes: "After Year-End Sideways Movement, $200,000 Possible by March Next Year"
According to foreign media outlets such as Decrypt on December 22, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the digital asset derivatives exchange BitMEX, recently predicted, "Bitcoin will remain in the $80,000-$100,000 range through the end of the year, but could rise to $200,000 by March next year." He added, "After a sharp rally, the price will stabilize around $124,000." This suggests that, after short-term volatility, Bitcoin could achieve a medium-term level-up surpassing its previous high.
As of 3:00 p.m. on December 22, Bitcoin is trading around $88,000. The recent rebound was driven by the so-called 'Santa Rally' in the year-end US stock market, with all three major New York indexes rising. However, Bitcoin's price is still nearly 30% lower than the all-time high of approximately $126,000 recorded in October.
"RMP Is Just Another Name for QE"... Liquidity Perception Is the Key Variable
Hayes pointed to the US Federal Reserve's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) policy as the key driver for Bitcoin's rise. RMP is a system in which the Federal Reserve regularly purchases short-term Treasury securities to stabilize financial market liquidity. After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 10, the Fed announced that it would begin purchasing $40 billion worth of short-term Treasuries starting December 12.
The Federal Reserve has emphasized that this measure is different from quantitative easing (QE), which involves buying long-term Treasuries. However, the market largely perceives it as a de facto liquidity expansion policy. Hayes also stated, "RMP is no different from QE except in name," and argued, "Once the market recognizes this as QE, Bitcoin could quickly recover to $124,000 and then move toward $200,000." He added, "March will be the peak moment for expectations regarding the effects of RMP," and predicted, "Even if a correction follows, it is highly likely that a new bottom will be established above the previous high."
Investment Banks Lower Targets..."Liquidity and Policy Uncertainties Remain"
On the other hand, there is also significant caution in the market. CNBC reported on December 21 (local time) that "volatility in the cryptocurrency market remains high," and that "there is a growing trend to diversify digital assets across portfolios to reduce investment risk." The report also advised, "For most individual investors, it is reasonable to hold only a small portion of their total assets in cryptocurrencies."
Global investment banks have also sequentially lowered their target prices. Barclays cited weakened expectations for crypto-friendly policies from US President Donald Trump and continued uncertainty in the liquidity environment as reasons for the potential continuation of Bitcoin weakness next year. Standard Chartered lowered its Bitcoin target price from $300,000 to $150,000 and pushed back its long-term target from 2028 to 2030. Bernstein also withdrew its forecast for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 this year and set a new target of $150,000 by the end of next year. However, Bernstein maintained its long-term optimism, stating that "an increased proportion of institutional investors is offsetting much of the selling pressure from individual investors."
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