Venture Business Recovery Phase... First Quarter Outlook for Next Year Surpasses 100

Reflecting Expectations for Domestic Market Recovery and Improved Funding Conditions
Rising Exchange Rates and Raw Material Prices Remain Burdensome Factors

Venture companies have expressed a positive outlook for the first quarter of next year, as expectations for a tangible recovery in the domestic market and improved funding conditions converge.

The Korea Venture Business Association announced the 'Venture Business Business Survey Index (BSI) for the fourth quarter of 2025' on December 22. This survey was conducted from November 18 to December 1, targeting 1,200 certified venture companies.

The fourth quarter Venture Business BSI recorded 95.3, up 5.4 points from the third quarter (89.9), marking the highest level since the survey began in 2024. While there has been a gradual improvement since the first quarter of this year, the increase in the fourth quarter was more pronounced, clearly indicating a recovery in business sentiment.

Among venture companies that assessed their third quarter business performance as "improved," the main factor cited was "improved domestic sales" (85.5%). In particular, "smooth funding conditions" (25.5%) increased by 14.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter (10.6%), indicating that companies' funding environments have improved. As for the main factors behind the deterioration in business conditions, "sluggish domestic sales" (87.2%) remained the most significant, while responses citing "rising raw material prices" (20.3%) also increased by 9.9 percentage points from the previous quarter (10.4%).

By industry, both the manufacturing and service sectors' business performance indices improved, reaching their highest levels of the year. The manufacturing sector's index rose by 3.0 points from the previous quarter (88.2) to 91.2, while the service sector's index increased by 8.3 points from the previous quarter (91.8) to 100.1. The service sector's business performance index exceeded the baseline of 100 for the first time since the survey began.

Although all individual performance indices remained below the baseline, there was an overall improvement compared to the previous quarter. Except for the "workforce situation" (96.9), which declined by 1.0 point from the previous quarter, all other categories improved. Notably, the "funding situation" index (94.5) rose by 8.0 points, surpassing the 90 mark for the first time since the survey began.

The Venture Business Outlook Index for the first quarter of 2026 stood at 100.8, exceeding the baseline and reflecting expectations for improved business conditions among venture companies next year. Following the previous quarter's surpassing of the baseline, the index increased slightly by 0.8 points, marking a fourth consecutive quarterly rise since the first quarter of this year.

Venture companies expecting improved business conditions in the first quarter of next year cited "improved domestic sales" (81.7%), "smooth funding conditions" (35.5%), and "improved exports" (22.9%) as the main factors.

Those anticipating a deterioration pointed to "sluggish domestic sales" (86.6%), "difficult funding conditions" (32.4%), and "rising raw material prices" (25.6%) as the main negative factors. In particular, the response rate for "rising raw material prices" increased by 11.2 percentage points from the previous quarter (14.4%), reflecting growing concerns among companies over continued exchange rate increases and related issues.