Coinbase: "Cautious Optimism for the 2026 Cryptocurrency Market" [Bitcoin Now]

"Predicting Bitcoin's Performance Will Become Even More Challenging"

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, has presented a "cautious optimism" regarding the cryptocurrency market environment for the first half of 2026. While some have raised concerns about a potential "bubble," analysts believe there is still significant room for further growth. The report also noted that predicting Bitcoin’s future performance has become more challenging than in the past.

On December 20, Coinbase stated in its "2026 Cryptocurrency Market Outlook" report, "We believe the cryptocurrency market environment in the first half of 2026 is closer to 1996 than to 1999." Here, 1996 refers to the early expansion phase of the stock market, while 1999 represents the peak of the dot-com bubble.

The report explained, "The U.S. economy remains resilient, cushioning other major indicators that show a slowdown in labor productivity growth," adding, "We maintain a relatively constructive outlook, but uncertainty remains broad."

Regarding Bitcoin, the report stated, "We believe that traditional historical frameworks for understanding Bitcoin’s performance are gradually losing their validity," attributing this to "a combination of new factors that have fundamentally reshaped the demand and market dynamics for Bitcoin."

Traditionally, Bitcoin price movements have been interpreted mainly through early adoption cycles and retail investor sentiment. However, as the market environment has evolved, the influence of miners has significantly diminished within the overall market dynamics.

The report identified the influx of institutional investors as a major change in 2025. With the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), major financial institutions such as asset management companies, hedge funds, and traditional banks have begun to actively participate in the market.

The report noted, "Institutional capital has different characteristics than retail investors," and explained, "These investors often view Bitcoin not as a short-term speculative asset, but as a hedge against excessive monetary supply and as a portfolio diversification tool."

Although accessibility has expanded, the limitations of using traditional models for prediction have only increased.

The report stated, "The expansion of accessibility through regulated exchanges, investment vehicles such as ETFs, and user-friendly platforms has significantly broadened the base of the cryptocurrency market." However, it also pointed out, "As a result, past cycle-based analytical frameworks no longer sufficiently explain the changed market dynamics, and their effectiveness in performance prediction has declined."