Why the U.S. Hesitates to Actively Intervene as China-Japan Radar Dispute Intensifies [Sisa Show]

Escalating Radar Lock-On Dispute
Trump Silent on Chinese Provocation... Focused on Tariff Negotiations

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'Soh Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'

■ Host: Soh Jongseop, Political Specialist

■ Director: Lee Miri, Producer

■ Guest: Lee Hyunwoo, Reporter

Tensions are escalating between China and Japan as the Chinese military dispatches a carrier strike group to waters near Okinawa for large-scale military exercises. The two countries have continued to exchange accusations over a recent radar lock-on incident involving their fighter jets in the area, leading to a dispute over the facts. The U.S. government, meanwhile, has avoided commenting on the conflict, only issuing a brief statement from the State Department criticizing China three days later, signaling a strong reluctance to get involved. There are even reports that Japan, which had hoped for President Trump to intervene directly and take a tough stance against China, is quite disappointed.

Radar Lock-On Dispute... China Continues Carrier Power Display

AP Yonhap News

The friction between China and Japan began on December 6, when the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and its fleet conducted large-scale exercises near Okinawa. Japan regarded the unannounced entry of the Chinese carrier group into Okinawan waters as an illegal incursion and scrambled F-15 fighter jets. Japan claims that a Chinese J-15 carrier-based fighter locked its radar onto a Japanese jet.

Conversely, China argues that it had notified Japan in advance of the military exercises and even received confirmation of receipt, yet Japan still scrambled its jets. China has gone so far as to release the communication records between the two sides to increase pressure. In response, Japan insists that China did not provide any information about the carrier's navigation plans, location, or safety measures, so the notification was insufficient.

As a result, the two sides' claims are sharply at odds, and the dispute is increasingly becoming a battle over the truth. China maintains that the radar lock-on was for detection purposes, while Japan insists it was a prelude to an attack-each side sticking to its own version. Notably, this is the first time the two countries' fighter jets have confronted each other in this way, and there is concern that if one side backs down, it could set a precedent for future encounters, making both sides even more unwilling to yield.

Currently, the Chinese carrier group remains in the area, conducting what amounts to a show of force not only near Okinawa Island but also in areas connected to the Japanese mainland. With supply lines arriving, there is even speculation that China could continue military drills in these waters for over a month unless a diplomatic settlement with Japan is reached.

Japan appears to be quite flustered by these developments. In fact, after the incident occurred, Japan expected the U.S. government or President Trump to step in and take its side, but the U.S. has acted as if it has little interest in the matter. The State Department did issue a statement on December 9, three days after the incident, saying that China's actions do not contribute to regional peace and reaffirming the strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance. However, this was seen as largely symbolic, and with President Trump making no mention of the issue, there is talk that the Japanese government is deeply disappointed in the U.S. response.

Trump Shows No Interest in China-Japan Clash... Focused on Tariff Talks

UPI Yonhap News

This issue has sparked discussion not only in Japan but also within and outside the United States. U.S. media have reported that President Trump urged Prime Minister Takaichi not to provoke China with remarks suggesting Japan might intervene in a Taiwan contingency. Although the Japanese government has denied these reports, it has become clear that there is a distinct difference in how the U.S. and Japan view the potential for conflict with China. Even if the U.S. sees China as a strategic threat, it is clear that Washington has no intention of worsening relations with China in the current situation.

From the Trump administration's perspective, tariff negotiations with China have made significant progress. President Trump has promised to visit China in April next year, with President Xi Jinping scheduled to visit the U.S. afterward, signaling a thaw in relations. In this context, it is widely believed that Japan's actions are not aligned with U.S. national interests. In short, when it comes to China, the U.S. will take the lead in any confrontation or conflict if it suits its interests, but if not, it is signaling that it has little intention of supporting an ally in a clash with China.

In China, the stance of not backing down on the Taiwan issue appears to be hardening. Ultimately, the roots of the current conflict can be traced back to Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks on Japan potentially exercising its right of self-defense in a Taiwan contingency. The situation has escalated step by step, from the suspension of civilian exchanges to diplomatic friction and now to military confrontation. China is gradually raising the level of provocation while closely observing the U.S. response, possibly to test how far the U.S. will refrain from intervening.

Many believe that the strong Chinese reaction is due in part to the significant impact of Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks about Japan potentially exercising its right of self-defense if a Taiwan contingency arises. There is a real risk that this could elevate the issue of Taiwan independence, advocated by Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party, to an international level. Within Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and other right-wing groups, there are many who support this stance and maintain exchanges with DPP lawmakers.

China continues to uphold the "One China" principle, recognized by the international community and the U.S. since 1979, and seeks to keep military confrontation with Taiwan as a domestic issue. Japan's recent actions have challenged this, and by framing the Taiwan issue as an international territorial dispute rather than an internal matter, Japan has provoked a strong reaction from China. As a result, China is determined not to back down, even if it means heightened friction with the U.S., in order to make clear in future negotiations that there will be no concessions on Taiwan. Given this, many predict that relations between China and Japan will remain strained unless Prime Minister Takaichi retracts her remarks.

May Have to Face China's Show of Force Alone... U.S. Allies on High Alert

Shinhwa Yonhap News

For U.S. allies, this incident has inevitably led to greater disappointment with the United States. It has shown that, regardless of U.S. interests, if a territorial dispute with China arises or China engages in a show of force in its own waters, allies may have to respond alone.

In fact, there are concerns in South Korea that China could install large numbers of structures in the provisional measures zone of the West Sea and use this as a basis to claim an exclusive economic zone or territorial waters. For now, the South Korean government is refraining from open criticism, preferring a strategic approach to prevent the issue from escalating into an international conflict, but ultimately, it is an issue that could lead to confrontation.

Additionally, incidents such as Chinese fighter jets locking radars or engaging in shows of force could easily occur in the West Sea as well. In the past, the United States played a managerial role in Northeast Asia, supporting its allies and mediating military conflicts to prevent escalation. However, it is now increasingly unlikely that the U.S. will continue to play this role. As a result, the side that is weaker in terms of power may be pushed back indefinitely, leading countries to respond more forcefully to military provocations, which increases the risk of accidental clashes.

Ultimately, countries on the front lines of U.S.-China rivalry cannot rely solely on U.S. backing in their diplomacy with China. They must carefully assess the mood of both countries, and if they seek U.S. support, they need to clearly communicate what can be gained from U.S. involvement. In the end, diplomacy with both the U.S. and China will become more complex, and new challenges will arise in national security. The South Korean government, too, will need to recognize this situation and develop new response strategies.