[The Editors' Verdict] "Conditions for Achieving 1 Trillion Dollars in Exports"

This year's Trade Day carries a more special significance than ever before. This is because South Korea's exports are on the verge of surpassing the 700 billion dollar mark for the first time in history, making it highly likely that a new chapter will be written. From the beginning of this year up to last month, export volume reached 640.2 billion dollars. With 61.04 billion dollars exported in November alone and monthly records being broken for the past six months, it seems highly likely that the 700 billion dollar milestone will be achieved. If this is accomplished, it would mean that the scale of exports has grown 7,000 times in the 61 years since exports first reached 100 million dollars in 1964.

Achieving 700 billion dollars in exports this year was not a major topic of interest for the industrial sector. Last year, there were high expectations for reaching 700 billion dollars in exports, but the total fell short at around 680 billion dollars. Moreover, at the beginning of this year, the United States imposed tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminum and 25% on automobiles, raising concerns about a potential blow to exports. However, in the second half of the year, strong sales of key export items such as semiconductors have rekindled optimism.

Reaching 700 billion dollars in exports is by no means an easy feat. Even Japan, whose economy is several times larger than South Korea's, barely exceeded 700 billion dollars in exports last year. Without the semiconductor boom that began in the second half of the year, this goal would have been out of reach. This year, semiconductor exports have already surpassed last year's record high. The soaring prices of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), including DRAM, a leading export item, have made significant contributions to the increase in exports.

However, given the structure of the Korean industry, it is not easy to expect this favorable trend to continue. The concentration on specific items such as semiconductors is intensifying, and as the United States and even Europe begin to erect tariff barriers, more companies are building factories overseas. As a result, the probability of exports experiencing a roller-coaster ride depending on semiconductor market conditions is increasing. In fact, even maintaining the 700 billion dollar level appears to be a challenge.

Export powerhouse items, including semiconductors, have not changed significantly in over a decade. The only notable change is that cosmetics have entered the top 10, while semiconductors, automobiles, and machinery remain firmly in the first, second, and third spots. As steel and petrochemicals, once major contributors to exports, have stagnated, diversification of export items has become more distant. Increased overseas investment by companies is also a negative factor for exports. The Bank of Korea and the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade both forecast that next year’s exports will decrease compared to this year.

Perhaps for this reason, despite the symbolic significance of record exports, this year's Trade Day was as calm as any other year. While the meaning was special, the level of attention remained ordinary. The Trade Day ceremony held the previous day was the first since the inauguration of the Lee Jaemyung administration. Prime Minister Kim Minseok attended the event instead of President Lee. A business community official commented, "Perhaps because we already celebrated achieving 1 trillion dollars in trade volume, the impact of reaching 700 billion dollars in exports seems relatively small." The government moved Trade Day from November 30 to December 5 to commemorate surpassing 1 trillion dollars in combined exports and imports in 2012. Unless exports reach 1 trillion dollars, it seems difficult to attract much attention.

It is said that the more advanced a country is, the more importance it places on the current account balance rather than the trade balance. However, exports are not simply about selling goods. They are a direct indicator of a country's industrial base and product competitiveness. Precisely because it is so difficult, achieving 1 trillion dollars in exports is a goal worth pursuing. To do so, policies that invigorate a diverse range of industries and enhance corporate competitiveness are essential. The tasks we must undertake have become even clearer.