'World's First' Drone Achieves Aerial Shootdown... 'Presidential Son-in-Law's Company' Delivers Breakthrough with Full Government Backing

T?rkiye Emerges as a New Drone Power
Experience and Technology Gained Through the Ukraine War
Full-Scale Mass Production Begins Next Year as Global Orders Surge
Sharp Decline in China's Drone Market Share Signals Major Changes Ahead

The successful aerial attack by a large unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) developed in T?rkiye has marked the world's first achievement of its kind, expanding the potential for drones, which had previously focused on ground attacks, to be used in aerial combat. As China's dominant share in the global drone market has been declining due to U.S. regulations, attention is now focused on whether T?rkiye's first successful aerial shootdown with a drone fighter will trigger a seismic shift in the military drone market.

On the 30th of last month (local time), the Bayraktar Kizilelma unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) fired a missile toward an airborne target during an airstrike test flight. Baykar website

'Bayraktar Kizilelma' Drone Achieves World's First Aerial Shootdown

Baykar, a Turkish defense company, announced on the 30th of last month (local time) that its independently developed drone fighter, the Bayraktar Kizilelma (hereafter referred to as Kizilelma), succeeded in shooting down an airborne aircraft target using an air-to-air missile. Kizilelma has thus earned the distinction of being the world's first drone to shoot down an aircraft in flight.

Until now, drones had emerged as a new advanced weapon specializing in attacking ground targets such as tanks, armored vehicles, and soldiers, particularly since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. However, due to limitations in flight speed, altitude, and endurance, they were unable to directly engage fighter jets. While the United States, China, Russia, and other countries are currently developing drone fighters capable of aerial combat, T?rkiye's Kizilelma drone has become the first to successfully carry out an aerial attack.

On the 30th of last month (local time), the Turkish drone 'Bayraktar Kizilelma,' which achieved the world's first successful aerial target shootdown, was seen. Baykar's official website

According to CNBC, the Kizilelma drone was jointly developed by Baykar and the Turkish government, with development beginning in 2013. It is a large drone the size of an actual fighter jet, measuring 14 meters in length, with a maximum takeoff weight of 6 tons and a wingspan of over 10 meters. Equipped with stealth capabilities, it can take off armed with up to 1.5 tons of weaponry, allowing it to engage enemy fighter jets as well as conduct ground bombing missions. Each sortie enables a flight endurance of about 5 to 6 hours, and it can take off and land from aircraft carriers to perform a variety of missions.

Drone Industry Rapidly Grows with Support from the Erdogan Administration... Experience Accumulated in Ukraine War

An image of the Bayraktar Kizilelma unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) flying in formation with a Turkish F-16 fighter jet. Baykar website

Baykar, the developer of the Kizilelma drone, was originally a manufacturing company specializing in computer numerical control (CNC) precision machining, unrelated to drone production. In 2007, Selcuk Bayraktar, who holds a Ph.D. in engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), became the company's second chairman, shifting its main business focus to drones and defense weapon manufacturing.

Bayraktar became the son-in-law of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2016, and as he gained significant influence in political circles, Baykar was able to receive full support from the Turkish government. He is currently considered one of the leading successors to the Erdogan administration, alongside Bilal Erdogan, President Erdogan's youngest son.

In addition, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022 had a major impact on the development of T?rkiye's drone industry. T?rkiye, together with Ukraine and the United Kingdom, embarked on developing new drone fighter engines and accumulated both technological expertise and combat experience by supplying large quantities of drones to Ukraine. Based on this real-world data, Baykar developed the Bayraktar TB2 drone in 2014, which has since been exported to 34 countries, including Ukraine and NATO member states, solidifying the company's position as a major player in the drone market.

China's Dominance in the Drone Market Wavers... Market Share Falls Below 40%

Drone wings produced at a drone manufacturing factory in the Samara region of Russia. Photo by TASS Yonhap News Agency

Baykar plans to begin mass production of the Kizilelma drone starting next year. After producing and deploying around 10 Kizilelma drones this year, the company aims to manufacture more than 500 units by 2030. Orders have already been placed not only by the Turkish Air Force but also by countries around the world, and joint production with the Italian defense company Leonardo is also planned.

Meanwhile, China's previously dominant share in the drone market has declined significantly, signaling major changes ahead. According to the Korea International Trade Association, China's share of the global drone market dropped sharply to 37.8% last year from 64.5% in 2022. Outside of China, the rankings for drone market share were Poland (9.6%), the Netherlands (6.0%), the United States (5.4%), and Israel (3.3%). The surge in demand for military drone production due to the war in Ukraine is believed to have driven Poland's market share up significantly from just 1.2% in 2022.

Furthermore, the U.S. government began imposing restrictions on Chinese-made drones earlier this year, and the Chinese government has also started to restrict exports of military drones and components, introducing more variables into the drone market. Market research firm MarketsandMarkets stated, "The global military drone market is expected to grow steadily from $15.8 billion (about 22 trillion won) to $22.2 billion by 2030," adding, "With Ukraine, Russia, T?rkiye, and Europe all increasing military drone production, the military drone segment now accounts for over 60% of the market, which is undergoing a major restructuring."