[Good Morning Market] U.S. Stocks Rise for Fourth Straight Day... Optimism Spreads to Korean Market

Expectations for U.S. Rate Cuts Remain Strong
Positive Momentum Forecast for Korean Market... Exchange Rate Still a Concern

The U.S. stock market rose for the fourth consecutive trading day ahead of Thanksgiving, as no significant negative factors emerged. With gains led by artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks, this positive momentum is expected to continue in the domestic stock market as well.

On November 26 (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 index closed up 0.69% at 6,812.61. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose 0.67%, finishing at 47,427.12. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index increased by 0.82% to 23,214.69 compared to the previous day. The market showed an upbeat atmosphere on the day before the Thanksgiving holiday closure.

Although economic indicators, including retail sales, contracted the previous day, raising concerns about an economic slowdown, the market instead took this as a reason to boost expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which appears to have driven the rally. New unemployment claims came in below market expectations, indicating a robust job market, but not enough to dampen hopes for a rate cut. According to CME FedWatch, which tracks interest rate direction, the probability of a rate cut in December in the options market stood at 84.9%.

AI-related stocks have been experiencing alternating gains and losses. On this day, shares of GPU-related companies such as Nvidia (up 1.4%) and AMD (up 3.9%) rose. In contrast, Alphabet (down 1.0%) and Meta (down 0.4%), which are considered related to Google’s self-developed Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), declined. Since the launch of Gemini 3.0, the market landscape has shifted from Nvidia’s dominance to competition between the GPU and TPU camps. Companies like Broadcom (up 3.2%) and Micron Technology (up 2.5%), which supply to both camps, saw further gains.

The Korean stock market is also expected to rise, following the positive momentum from the U.S. market, especially as it showed a rebound after seven trading days of weakness. The MSCI Korea ETF, which closely tracks the domestic market, rose 1.67%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 2.76%. Although the won-dollar exchange rate, which has returned to the 1,470 won level, remains a concern, there is a possibility that exchange rate volatility may stabilize after the Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting on this day.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, stated, "Even in a challenging environment where bubble concerns are being raised, there are reasons to continue holding stocks related to the AI value chain," adding, "It is advisable not to react sensitively to news that has not yet been finalized, such as the separate taxation of dividend income and the financial investment income tax."