China’s October Exports Fall Year-on-Year Amid US-China Trade Conflict

Exports Down 1.1% Year-on-Year
Trade Surplus Also Falls Short of Last Month

Amid uncertainties stemming from the US-China trade conflict, China’s export performance last month recorded a year-on-year decline.

On November 7 (local time), China’s General Administration of Customs announced that exports in October, measured in US dollars, fell by 1.1% compared to the same month last year. This figure is significantly lower than both China’s September export growth rate (8.3%) and the market forecast (3.0%).

While China has recently emphasized market opening, imports in October increased by 1.0% year-on-year, but this also fell short of the September import growth rate (7.4%). As a result, the trade surplus in October stood at 90.07 billion dollars, down from last month’s surplus of 90.45 billion dollars.

Since the beginning of this year, the US and China have been imposing triple-digit tariffs on each other. Although they have maintained a "truce" since a high-level trade negotiation in May, the US has continued to block China’s access to advanced semiconductors, while China has weaponized rare earths. On October 30, the two countries reached a partial trade agreement at a summit in Busan, but tensions flared again last month as both sides announced new sanctions ahead of the meeting to keep each other in check.

While China has recently emphasized market opening, imports in October increased by 1.0% year-on-year. However, this was lower than the September import growth rate (+7.4%) and marked the lowest level in five months since May (-3.4%).

The trade surplus in October was 90.07 billion dollars (approximately 131.2 trillion won), falling short of last month’s surplus of 90.45 billion dollars (approximately 131.7 trillion won).

As for rare earths, which China has "weaponized" during the trade war, exports in October increased by 9% month-on-month to 4,343.5 tons, ending a three-month streak of declines. However, specific export volumes and countries by item were not disclosed in this preliminary report.

China’s crude oil imports last month rose by 8.2% year-on-year to 48.36 million tons, but imports of other raw materials such as coal, natural gas, iron ore, and precious metals were generally sluggish.