Three Consecutive Rate Holds... Next Cut Hinges on 'Housing Prices and Exchange Rate Trends' [3-Minute Brief]

[At a Glance]
① Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board keeps base rate unchanged at 2.50% per annum
② Trump administration considers software export controls against China
③ Yen weakens following Prime Minister Takaichi's inauguration in Japan

MARKET INDEX : Year to date

○All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher in New York, driven by bargain hunting in technology stocks.

○M7 earnings to be a key variable for future rallies.

○White House: "U.S.-China summit on the 30th"... Expectations rise for easing of trade tensions.

Top3 NEWS

■ Bank of Korea holds rates steady in October... Next cut hinges on 'housing prices and exchange rate trends'

○Sharp rise in housing prices and exchange rate instability: "Financial stability comes first"
○Housing prices and transaction volumes need to stabilize; effects of the October 15 measures must be confirmed
○Uncertainty over $350 billion investment in the U.S.; exchange rate volatility increases, hovering around 1,430 won

■ U.S. counters China's rare earth controls with software export restrictions... Pressure mounts ahead of summit

○Besson: "Considering software export controls... Coordinating with G7"
○Countermeasures against China's rare earth export controls
○Tensions rise ahead of U.S.-China summit

■ Expectations grow for Korea-U.S. negotiations... Will a weak yen push the exchange rate higher again?

○Japanese yen weakens noticeably after Prime Minister Takaichi takes office
○Market observers say, "Yen weakness may persist through year-end"
○Attention on results of Korea-U.S. negotiations and Japan's benchmark interest rate decision at the end of the month

Graphic News: [Why&Next] What happened on August 7, 2024... Behind-the-scenes of KEPCO, KHNP-U.S. WEC negotiations

○Details of unfair nuclear power export contracts revealed during the National Assembly audit
○KEPCO and KHNP promised Westinghouse substantial technology usage fees and more
○If contracts are canceled or renegotiated, Czech nuclear project bidding could be delayed

the Chart: When the stock market takes a breather, Ecopro posts double-digit gains... But is it a buy?

○Ecopro jumps 15%, leading the secondary battery rally
○Anticipation for benefits from expanding AI-based ESS demand
○Most securities firms maintain a 'neutral' investment rating

Today's Key Schedule

○Domestic

Nota KOSDAQ subscription, confirmed IPO price at 9,100 won

○Overseas

02:00 U.S. 5-year TIPS Treasury auction

05:20 U.S. Federal Reserve balance sheet

08:30 Japan Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (September)

08:30 Japan Consumer Price Index (MoM) (September)

09:30 Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index (October)

16:30 Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (October)

17:00 Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (October)

17:00 Eurozone Markit Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (October)

21:30 U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) (September)

21:30 U.S. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (September)

21:30 Speech by Bundesbank President Nagel (Germany)

22:45 Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (October)

22:45 U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (October)

23:00 U.S. University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (October)

23:00 U.S. New Home Sales (September)

◇Lunch & Commute Weather

○Lowest temperature 10°C (▼2°C) ｜Highest temperature: 20°C (▼1°C)
○Chance of precipitation: 10% in the morning | 10% in the afternoon
○Fine dust: Good in the morning | Good in the afternoon

Just 3 minutes-essential, time-saving, value-for-money economic news. Published daily at 8 a.m.