Glover CIO: "The Bitcoin Bull Market Is Over"
"Entering a Bear Market That Could Last Until the End of 2026"
The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has once again entered a correction phase. Amid weakened investor sentiment due to the recent escalation of the US-China trade dispute and concerns over the financial health of US regional banks, John Glover, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Ledn, who is renowned for his accurate predictions in the cryptocurrency market, warned that "this downturn marks the beginning of a long-term bear market, not just a short-term correction." He assessed that "Bitcoin could fall more than 35% from its current peak," adding, "The bull market that began in early 2023 has already come to an end."
"Bitcoin Could Drop to $70,000"
According to cryptocurrency media outlet CoinDesk on October 19 (local time), CIO Glover warned that Bitcoin could drop to the $70,000 (approximately 99 million won) level. This means there is potential for a decline of more than 35% from the current price (about $108,000, or approximately 154 million won).
CIO Glover stated, "Cryptocurrencies have completed a five-wave upward movement and have now entered a bear market that could last until at least the end of 2026," forecasting that "the price could fall to between $70,000 and $80,000." He added, "While it is not impossible for Bitcoin to retest its all-time high of $124,000 (about 176 million won) or see a slight increase, the trend has now reversed to bearish."
In fact, Bitcoin has continued to show weakness due to the fallout from the US-China trade dispute and concerns over the stability of US regional banks. On October 17, it plunged more than 3%, falling to the $112,246 (approximately 156 million won) range.
Bitcoin Seen Through Elliott Wave Theory
CIO Glover explained the current downturn using the 'Elliott Wave Theory.' This theory, proposed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, interprets price movements as five upward waves and three corrective waves, based on the assumption that investor sentiment follows repetitive cycles. Applying this theory, he argued that Bitcoin fell below $105,000 (about 150 million won) last week, signaling the end of the bull market.
Additionally, Glover noted that his outlook aligns with Bitcoin's historical pattern of peaking about 18 months after a halving event and then entering a bear market. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024. If CIO Glover's forecast materializes, the Bitcoin rally that has continued for the past two years will effectively come to an end.
Bitcoin Weakness Continues Amid US Financial Market Instability
The virtual asset market has recently entered a correction phase due to reduced liquidity stemming from the US-China trade dispute and related tensions. According to data from cryptocurrency information provider CoinGecko, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies dropped more than $210 billion (about 29.8 trillion won) in the week since October 13. The market's bearishness appears to be a continued effect of the record-breaking liquidation event that occurred in the industry on October 10.
At that time, after China announced plans to impose export restrictions on rare earth elements, US President Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of additional tariffs, leading to the liquidation of leveraged positions and derivative investments in the market. Ongoing tensions over the US-China trade dispute continue to negatively impact the market overall. In addition, a series of expert warnings predicting a sharp decline in Bitcoin suggest that the market is likely to remain bearish for the time being.
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