On U.S. Betting Site Polymarket,
Nobel Committee Launches Immediate Investigation
There have been suspicions that information about this year's Nobel Peace Prize laureate may have been leaked before the official announcement. This is because unusual betting activity was detected on betting sites prior to the announcement of the winner.
According to The Guardian and Bloomberg on October 10 (local time), there was a surge in online bets predicting that Maria Corina Machado, a female opposition leader from Venezuela, would win the Nobel Peace Prize on the American betting site Polymarket in the early hours of the day, Norway time. Until the day before the announcement, users of the site had considered Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny, and former U.S. President Donald Trump as the leading candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize.
On this site, the probability of Machado winning the Nobel Peace Prize was only 3.75% just after midnight, lower than the other leading candidates. However, in less than two hours, it soared to 72.8%. The Nobel Committee announced Machado as the Nobel Peace Prize laureate at 11:00 a.m. that day, and Machado received the news from the Nobel Institute at 10:50 a.m., ten minutes earlier.
Betting 100 Million Won and Earning a 43% Profit
Those who bet on Machado's victory reportedly made significant profits. According to Polymarket data, a user with the handle "DirtyCup" placed a $70,000 (about 100 million won) bet on Machado a few hours before the announcement and earned a profit of $30,000 (about 43 million won). This user opened a Polymarket account this month and had not previously placed bets on other wagers.
Norwegian dailies Aftenposten and Finansavisen also reported on the unusual activity on Polymarket. Finansavisen stated that three Polymarket accounts concentrated their bets on Machado, earning a total profit of $90,000 (about 130 million won).
As the controversy grew, the Nobel Committee immediately launched an investigation. Kristian Berg Harpviken, Secretary of the Nobel Committee, said, "We are taking this matter very seriously," adding, "It appears we have become prey for criminals seeking to profit from our information."
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded to individuals or organizations who have contributed to world peace, and the recipient is decided by a five-member committee elected by the Norwegian Parliament. Maintaining confidentiality is a crucial principle for this committee. This year's laureate was selected on October 6.
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