Cargo Volume Up 25.9% in the Week After Tariff Announcement, Down 20.8% After Implementation
After Universal Tariff Took Effect in April, U.S. Imports Shrink While Global Exports Rise
Advance Exports Likely Before Semiconductor and Pharmaceutical Ta
It has been analyzed that there were short-term fluctuations in global export volumes before and after the comprehensive tariff policies of the second Donald Trump administration.
On September 29, the International Trade Research Institute of the Korea International Trade Association announced in its report, "Changes in Global Export Volumes and Implications After U.S. Tariff Policies," that global export volumes increased by 25.9% during the week immediately following the announcement of tariffs.
This was due to preemptive export demand aimed at avoiding tariffs. However, during the week after the actual implementation of tariffs, export volumes decreased by 20.8%, showing that the effect was limited.
This study empirically analyzed short-term changes at 16 announcement points and 11 implementation points of the Trump administration's tariff policies, using daily export volume data from ports in the United States’ top eight import partners (China, Canada, Mexico, Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and South Korea).
The report pointed out that although the changes in export volumes were only short-term in nature, the impact could accumulate during periods when tariff policies are concentrated. It also analyzed that, due to the short interval between tariff announcements and implementation, the movement of existing inventories occurred more than new production.
The report explained that while tariff measures temporarily increased global export volumes, the trends in global exports and U.S. imports differed. After former President Trump mentioned the possibility of imposing tariffs as a candidate in October last year, global export volumes declined for three consecutive months due to uncertainty until his inauguration, whereas U.S. imports surged sharply during the same period.
However, after the mutual tariff 90-day deferment and the implementation of a universal 10% tariff in April, U.S. import demand shrank, with monthly growth remaining below 2%, while global export volumes continued to increase. The institute assessed that this indicates that export markets expanded to regions outside the United States to avoid the broad-based U.S. tariffs.
The report suggested that with tariffs expected to be imposed on key items such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals in the future, there may be renewed preemptive export demand, highlighting the need for inventory and raw material supply chain management.
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