DRAM Prices to Rise Up to 18%... Driven by HBM and Server DRAM Demand

There is a forecast that the price of DRAM, the representative product of memory semiconductors, will rise by up to 18% by the end of this year. This analysis attributes the price increase to expanding demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and server applications.

According to market research firm TrendForce on September 24, the overall DRAM price in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to increase by 13% to 18% compared to the previous quarter. During the same period, the price of general-purpose DRAM is projected to rise by 8% to 13%.

It is analyzed that the three major memory manufacturers-Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron-are allocating their most advanced process production capacity to server DRAM and HBM, resulting in reduced capacity for IT devices such as PCs and mobile devices. TrendForce explained, "This trend is causing the price of DRAM produced with existing processes to remain noticeably high, while next-generation products are seeing a modest increase."

In particular, the price increase for DDR5 products in the server DRAM sector is expected to continue in the fourth quarter of this year. TrendForce stated, "Both the United States and cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to significantly increase their procurement of server DRAM next year," and added, "Despite suppliers' active production capacity adjustments, several uncertainties remain, including technical issues at some suppliers and the prioritization of HBM4 production capacity in the first half of next year, so the supply situation for DDR5 remains unstable."

For LPDDR4X, used in mid- to low-priced smartphones, prices are expected to rise by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter as suppliers reduce production and set manufacturers increase purchases to avoid supply disruptions.

Due to a seasonal increase in PC inventory and heightened expectations for Nvidia's 'RTX 6000' series, the price of graphics DRAM, including the latest GDDR7, is expected to rise. As suppliers anticipate shortages and strengthen their pricing policies, the price of GDDR7 is projected to surge even more sharply than in the previous quarter.

TrendForce noted, "For DDR4, an older DRAM product, set manufacturers have been stockpiling inventory in response to discontinuation plans by the three major memory manufacturers, causing prices to roughly double in the third quarter of this year." However, the firm added, "Since set sales have not rebounded significantly, the pace of price increases is expected to slow in the fourth quarter."