[PB Note] When Considering Direct and Indirect Stock-Linked Investments... Risk Management Through Gradual Buying Is Essential

Lee Junsun, Head of Gold PB at Hana Bank Club1 Hannam PB Center Branch

▲Lee Junsun, Gold PB Manager, Club1 Hannam PB Center Branch, Hana Bank

The domestic stock market in the first half of 2025 has shown a clear upward trend for the first time in a while. Expectations for interest rate cuts, a recovery in the semiconductor industry, and hopes for improved corporate governance have all contributed to this momentum, with the KOSPI index reaching an intraday high of 3,220.27 on July 22, setting a new annual record. Overall investor sentiment in the market has also distinctly improved.

Foreign capital has continued to flow steadily into large-cap blue-chip stocks, while individual investors have actively participated in themes with structural growth potential, such as artificial intelligence (AI). In particular, as the global AI market expands in earnest, domestic semiconductor and related industries have emerged as major beneficiaries.

The most prominent sectors in the first half of the year were undoubtedly semiconductors and AI. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw heightened expectations for performance due to increased demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI servers, and related materials, parts, and equipment companies also experienced simultaneous gains. The expansion of demand for AI semiconductors is likely to become a long-term growth driver rather than just a short-term trend.

Doosan Group stocks also attracted significant attention in the first half. Factors such as the strengthening of nuclear power and hydrogen themes centered on Doosan Enerbility, growth potential in new businesses at affiliates like Doosan Robotics, and expectations for corporate governance restructuring have combined to create a positive trend from a mid- to long-term investment perspective.

These market trends have been reflected in fund and ETF products as well. Korean-style hydrogen economy funds and Mirae Asset Smart Energy Funds, which include Doosan and hydrogen-related companies, have recorded relatively solid returns, while semiconductor-focused ETFs based on AI have shown high returns, leading to a steady increase in assets under management.

Investors seeking diversified exposure to global technology stocks are turning to products such as the US Tech TOP10 ETF and the NASDAQ100 ETF. These products have established themselves as useful options for individual investors due to their long-term growth potential, low fees, and the convenience of choosing whether to hedge currency exposure.

While the semiconductor and AI themes led the stock market rally in the first half of the year, in the second half, key themes to watch include secondary battery materials, the innovative aerospace and UAM (Urban Air Mobility) industries, and AI-linked industrial stocks. As these are the leading stocks in each theme, they merit close attention.

On the other hand, it is important to exercise caution, especially during periods of growing market optimism. The main variables for the stock market in the second half are the timing and pace of US interest rate cuts, the recovery of the Chinese economy, and the direction of domestic political policies.

Regarding the timing of US interest rate cuts, the main factors influencing rate fluctuations are inflation and policy. Tensions are rising between President Trump's calls for rate cuts and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's cautious stance, which may result in continued upward pressure on rates for the time being. With high tariffs on products from Vietnam and Indonesia set to be fully applied based on July and August data, gradual impacts on inflation are likely and should be monitored. The Federal Reserve has projected four rate cuts over a one-year period starting in September.

In addition, China's second-quarter GDP growth rate was 5.2%, exceeding expectations, but the slow recovery of the real estate market and ongoing US-China trade tensions remain issues that need to be addressed.

When selecting stocks or investment products, it is important to focus on the intrinsic value of companies, their competitiveness within the industry, and their financial structure, rather than being swayed by short-term trends or themes. If it is difficult to select individual stocks directly, investing indirectly through ETFs or funds can help diversify risk.

For the second half of the year, assuming an aggressive investment approach, the following portfolio allocation is recommended: 20% in domestic stock bio ETFs, 30% in US NASDAQ100, 20% in US Treasury bonds, and 30% in domestic short-term bonds (or cash).

The second half of 2025 is likely to be a period characterized not by a simple bull market, but by a mix of structural changes and opportunities.

Rather than excessive confidence in a particular direction, it is advisable to maintain a flexible perspective, adopt a long-term approach with a strategy of gradual buying, and realize profits through appropriate rebalancing when individual themes experience stock price increases.