Female Conscription Expands Amid Declining Birth Rates
Even South Korea Faces Challenges as Fertility Plummets
With Denmark announcing the full implementation of conscription for women starting July 1, the global spread of female conscription is accelerating. Norway and Sweden have already implemented conscription for women, and with Denmark joining them, all three Nordic countries now have female conscription systems in place.
This trend is analyzed as the result of a combination of factors: the increasing military threat from Russia, as well as manpower shortages caused by low birth rates and population aging. In particular, following the war in Ukraine, the sense of security crisis in European countries has intensified, making the securing of military personnel an urgent issue.
Denmark's conscription system for women differs from Israel's universal conscription model. In Israel, all unmarried women aged 18 and older are subject to conscription, with about 55% of all women serving in the military. In contrast, Denmark has adopted a "selective conscription" system. All women are registered as potential conscripts, but only a small number are actually selected to serve. In peacetime, only outstanding individuals with the potential to become elite soldiers are chosen, while in special situations such as war, a system is in place to mobilize a broader pool.
Denmark currently has about 9,000 active-duty soldiers, of which 4,700 are conscripts and the rest are professional soldiers. Until now, most female soldiers were professionals, but now women will also be included among conscripts. The Danish government plans to increase the number of conscripts from the current 4,700 to 6,000 and set the service period at 11 months.
Notably, in Denmark, women are actively competing for military service. Military service is highly valued as pre-employment experience, and working conditions are favorable, to the extent that women's organizations have demanded the introduction of gender-neutral conscription. This is a stark contrast to South Korea, where there is a strong perception that military service is beneficial for career advancement.
Currently, a significant number of European countries are considering female conscription. The most active discussions are taking place in Germany and Switzerland. These countries are also facing serious issues of low birth rates and population aging, and since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they have struggled to secure military manpower. Germany's birth rate is 1.58, and Switzerland's is 1.40, which are higher than South Korea's, but these figures are largely driven by higher birth rates among immigrants from the Middle East and Africa. In particular, Germany has accepted many refugees from the Middle East, with the Islamic population increasing by more than 200,000 annually and now exceeding six million in total.
The problem is that immigrants who have not acquired citizenship are difficult to include as conscripts, and even if conscripted, integration within the military can be challenging. Even among native citizens, issues of violence and discrimination in the military are not easily resolved, and the presence of people from different races or religions could make matters even more complicated. Due to these difficulties, European countries see female conscription as a more realistic alternative. As Denmark's selective conscription method has proven to be less socially controversial, measures to gradually increase the proportion of women conscripted are being pursued.
In contrast, the situation in the United States is the opposite. During the Biden administration, there was an attempt to amend the law to include women as potential conscripts, but this was blocked by strong opposition from the Republican Party. Since the start of the Trump administration, negative views on women's military service have become even more pronounced. The United States switched to an all-volunteer force after the end of the Vietnam War in 1974, but it has maintained a system for pre-registering potential conscripts in preparation for wartime mobilization. Until now, only men have been required to register, but concerns about manpower shortages due to low birth rates and population aging have prompted discussions about including women.
However, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth under the Trump administration made it clear that "women should not be sent into combat." Conservative groups emphasize traditional gender roles and argue that it is more efficient for women to contribute to the production of military manpower through childbirth and childcare at home. This perspective aligns with the historical reasons why many civilizations excluded women from conscription. Demographic considerations have played a role, as the loss of women in combat could make postwar population recovery more difficult.
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South Korea is also not exempt from discussions on female conscription. Due to the world's lowest birth rate, the supply of military manpower is rapidly declining, making this a pressing issue. Currently, 90% of adult men are deemed fit for active duty and serve in the military. This is even higher than the 70-80% active duty determination rates of Nazi Germany and Japan during World War II, meaning that virtually anyone able to hold a gun is being sent to serve. This is a sharp increase compared to the early 1990s, when the rate was around 58%.
The bigger problem is that the number of men eligible for conscription itself is decreasing. For those born in the 1990s, the male-to-female ratio was 116 to 100 due to a preference for sons, but now it has become roughly equal at 100 to 100. As the younger generations come of age, the number of men available for conscription will continue to decline, causing military manpower to decrease exponentially.
Unlike the Nordic countries, South Korea must also consider its unique geopolitical situation. While Denmark can select fewer than 10,000 soldiers for conscription, South Korea must maintain a force of 470,000. Since neighboring countries such as China have standing armies of two million, and Russia has 1.5 million, South Korea cannot afford to significantly reduce its military size.
For now, maintaining a force of nearly 500,000 is still possible, so the issue remains at the discussion stage. However, if birth rates do not rebound and the population drops to around 40 million in the 2040s, full-scale discussions on introducing female conscription are expected to begin. The global spread of female conscription reflects not just a military policy, but broader societal changes. As countries grapple with the dual challenges of low birth rates and military threats, it remains to be seen what solutions they will adopt and what the outcomes will be.
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