"July Great Earthquake Theory" Spreads in Japan... Rumor or Science? [AK Radio]

Manga Artist Tatsuki Ryo's New Prediction Spreads Social Anxiety
Experts: "It Is Impossible to Predict Earthquakes with Current Science"
Numerous Variables Make Accurate Forecasting Unattainable

The rapid spread of the "July Great Earthquake theory" in Japan has put the tourism industry on high alert. Social anxiety is growing as a new prediction by a manga artist, who is said to have foretold the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, coincides with an earthquake forecast from the Japan Meteorological Agency.

The origin of this rumor is a Japanese female manga artist named Tatsuki Ryo. In her 1999 work "The Future I Saw," she depicted disasters she saw in her dreams. The work gained attention because it included the statement, "A major disaster will occur in Japan in March 2011," which matched exactly with the Great East Japan Earthquake that struck on March 11.

After the earthquake, this manga, which had been out of print, began to be called a prophecy book and its secondhand price soared to as much as 1 million yen. Recently, Tatsuki announced a new prediction: "A major disaster will occur in Japan on July 5, 2025." She later retracted her statement, saying, "On second thought, it may not be July 5," but the impact on Japanese society has already been significant.

The reason this manga artist's prediction has become a social issue, rather than just a rumor, is the official announcement from the Japan Meteorological Agency that followed an interview with Tatsuki. In its recent medium- to long-term earthquake forecast, the Japan Meteorological Agency warned, "There is a risk of a major earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough region in southern mainland Japan within the next 30 years." According to the agency, if a major earthquake occurs in this region, a tsunami on the scale of the Great East Japan Earthquake could result, potentially causing more than 300,000 deaths and 13 million displaced people.

Experts assert that, with current scientific technology, it is impossible to predict earthquakes with precision. Accurate earthquake prediction requires pinpointing the timing, location, and magnitude, but even with all modern observation equipment, this is considered impossible. This is because earthquake activity occurs deep underground, where there are too many variables, and humanity has yet to fully understand the internal structure of the Earth. To date, even modern science has not completely penetrated the Earth's crust, so our understanding of the Earth's interior remains limited.

Scenery around Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, which exploded due to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake aftermath. Photo by AP Yonhap News

This scientific gap has led to the rise of various pseudoscientific theories. One representative example is the "earthquake cloud" theory that became popular in Japan in the 2000s. This theory claimed that unusual cloud formations appear in certain areas before earthquakes. Although there were a few coincidental matches, the theory has since been proven to lack scientific basis as it failed to predict subsequent earthquakes.

Recently, the occurrence of hundreds of minor earthquakes in Japan and reports of deep-sea fish being caught have sparked speculation that these might be precursors to a major earthquake. However, experts explain that it is difficult to determine whether such phenomena are actually precursors to a major earthquake or simply individual natural occurrences.

On March 9, 2011, two days before the Great East Japan Earthquake, an offshore earthquake of around magnitude 5 occurred near Fukushima. At the time, it was regarded as just another earthquake. Afterwards, thousands of aftershocks shook the entire Tohoku region, but it was only after the Great East Japan Earthquake that it became clear in retrospect that these were precursors. Ultimately, because small and large earthquakes continue to occur underground and it is impossible to predict when and on what scale they will escalate, rumors are bound to spread easily.

Following the spread of the July Great Earthquake theory, authorities in China and Hong Kong issued travel advisories for Japan, and actual bookings for Japan-bound tours from China have dropped significantly. In contrast, South Korea has not been greatly affected, with the number of Korean tourists to Japan reaching an all-time high last month. Experts also advise that there is no scientific basis for the July earthquake theory and that excessive concern is unnecessary.

Although Japan is a country where small and large earthquakes occur daily, it also has the world's most advanced earthquake preparedness systems, so there is no need to be overly fearful. However, travelers are advised to prepare for possible disasters such as earthquakes by ▲identifying evacuation areas in advance ▲learning how to return home in an emergency ▲checking the location of emergency exits in accommodations ▲carrying important documents such as passports ▲and preparing emergency supplies.