Trump Says "Iran Has Reached Out to Negotiate"
On Possibility of Iran Strike: "Could Happen, or Might Not"
Fed to Announce Rate Decision at 2 p.m.; Hold Expected
U.S. Jobless Claims at 245,000, Lower Than Forecast
The three major indices on the New York Stock Exchange opened higher on June 18 (local time). Buying momentum is being driven by investor focus on the potential easing of Middle East tensions, following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump that Iran has expressed a willingness to negotiate. The market is also closely watching the Federal Reserve's decision on the benchmark interest rate, scheduled for later in the afternoon.
As of 10:28 a.m. on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is centered on blue-chip stocks, was up 260.12 points (0.62%) from the previous trading day, standing at 42,475.92. The S&P 500 index, focused on large-cap stocks, rose 32.96 points (0.55%) to 6,015.68, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index climbed 118.77 points (0.61%) to 19,639.86.
On this day, President Trump stated that Iran had made contact with the White House and described Iran as "completely defenseless." When asked about the possibility of a U.S. attack on Iran, he replied, "It could happen, or it might not." President Trump also noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin had indicated a willingness to mediate. Optimism is emerging that the ongoing armed clashes between Iran and Israel, now in their sixth day, could de-escalate as a result of Trump's remarks.
President Trump's comments came amid heightened tensions surrounding the Middle East conflict. On the same day, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, responded to President Trump by stating, "The Iranian people will not surrender," and emphasized that "U.S. military intervention would undoubtedly cause irreversible damage." This was in response to President Trump's remarks the previous day, when he said, "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding," and "Our patience is running thin. Surrender unconditionally!" It was also reported that the United States is considering direct intervention in the Middle East situation. According to U.S. media, President Trump convened a National Security Council (NSC) meeting the previous day, where scenarios were discussed such as deploying U.S. forces to directly strike Iran's nuclear facilities or increasing military support to Israel as ways to intervene in the conflict.
Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, analyzed, "Even before the Middle East crisis, there were expectations of numerous risks, and valuations were so high that it was difficult to maintain flexibility," adding, "Current stock prices do not have much capacity to absorb all these uncertainties, including tariffs, fiscal uncertainty, and the debt ceiling."
Investors are focusing on the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate decision, which is set to be announced at the regular Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later in the afternoon. According to CME FedWatch, as of this day, the federal funds rate futures market is pricing in a 99.9% probability that the Fed will keep the benchmark rate unchanged at the current 4.25-4.5% range. The Fed's quarterly dot plot, which outlines interest rate projections, and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will also be released on this day.
While the Fed is closely monitoring key economic indicators to assess the impact of tariffs, the employment data released in the morning was better than expected. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, new unemployment claims for the week of June 8-14 totaled 245,000. This is a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's 250,000, slightly below the market forecast of 246,000. However, the figure still remains at the highest level in about eight months.
Consumer data was weak. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce the previous day, retail sales in May 2025 fell 0.9% from the previous month. Dow Jones experts had expected retail sales to decrease by 0.6% last month, but the actual decline was greater than forecast. April retail sales were also revised down from a previously reported 0.1% increase to a 0.1% decrease. This marks the first time since late 2023 that retail sales have fallen for two consecutive months, indicating that consumers are once again cutting back on spending.
International oil prices are declining on expectations that Middle East tensions will ease. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading at $72.56 per barrel, down $0.71 (0.97%) from the previous day, while Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, is trading at $75.61 per barrel, down $0.84 (1.1%) from the previous day.
By stock, trading of US Steel has been halted as it is being fully acquired by Nippon Steel. Nvidia is up 0.79%, Tesla is showing a strong gain of 2.15%, and Apple is up 0.81%.
U.S. Treasury yields are trending lower. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, the global benchmark for bond yields, is down 4 basis points (1bp=0.01 percentage point) from the previous day at 4.35%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury, which is sensitive to monetary policy, is down 1 basis point from the previous day at 3.93%.
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