[So Jongseop's Inside Interview] Jeong Seongjang: "We Must Secure Nuclear Potential at the Level of Japan"

"North Korea Has No Reason to Engage in Dialogue Right Now"
"Trump-Kim Jongun Summit Will Take Place"
"Experts Must Gather to Develop a Mid-to-Long-Term Roadmap"

Seongjang Jeong, Acting Deputy Director of the Sejong Institute, appeared on Asia Economy’s current affairs YouTube channel, AK Radio, at 4 p.m. on the 13th. Deputy Director Jeong stated, "North Korea currently has no reason to engage in dialogue," adding, "We need to approach this issue with a big-picture perspective and a long-term view." He emphasized, "We must secure at least the level of nuclear potential that Japan possesses," and stressed the need to discuss this issue at the South Korea-U.S. summit.

Since the rise of President Trump and President Lee Jaemyung, have there been any changes in North Korea's behavior compared to the past?

There have been some subtle movements. When Trump was re-elected, North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun reported on it. In contrast, when Joe Biden was elected in the past, the news was released only through internet media that ordinary citizens do not access. This indicates that North Korea somewhat ignored Biden’s election. Lee Jaemyung’s election was also reported quickly via Rodong Sinmun. However, it is difficult to say this holds great significance. Kim Jongun cannot easily change his calculation method at this time. The current situation is unprecedentedly favorable for him.

He is in a close relationship with President Putin, President Trump is trying to send "love letters," and President Lee Jaemyung is also sending conciliatory messages expressing his desire to talk with North Korea. Since all parties are showing willingness to engage with Kim Jongun, this is truly a happy moment for him. However, when considering whether there is any practical benefit in meeting with either Trump or President Lee Jaemyung, the answer is no. From North Korea's perspective, while it is not taking an extremely hardline stance against South Korea and the United States, the situation is not conducive to dialogue either. There is no reason for North Korea to significantly change its position at this time.

Seongjang Jeong, Acting Deputy Director of the Sejong Institute, is giving an interview on AK Radio on the 3rd.

Are you saying that North Korea will watch South Korea and the United States for the time being?

If South Korea and the United States want to engage in dialogue with North Korea, they must choose one of two options. In 2017, China, Russia, and the United States joined forces to impose sanctions on North Korea. The resulting anxiety about a possible return to the "Arduous March" period prompted North Korea to come to the table. Now, Russia has lifted its sanctions, and China is also leaning toward lifting them. North Korea is not in a position of need. Another factor is that if North Korea sees clear practical benefits from dialogue, it may engage. However, since neither of these conditions is met, North Korea currently has no reason to participate in talks.

What is the current economic situation in North Korea?

It is much poorer compared to us. If there is something Kim Jongun has done well, it is that he has allowed some market activity. Kim Jongun is a results-oriented leader. Kim Jongil, on the other hand, would not dismiss an official even if they were incompetent or hospitalized, as long as they were loyal. However, Kim Jongun cannot tolerate incompetence. Loyalty is a given, but incompetent officials are immediately demoted or dismissed.

This is related to Kim Jongun’s passion for basketball during his studies in Switzerland. He has a competitive spirit. After a game, Kim Jongchol would simply say "good job" and leave, whereas Kim Jongun would analyze why he lost and ensure he would win next time. This is the same style he uses to lead North Korea now. It is not unpredictable. During the Kim Jongil era, North Korea’s economy was at about the level of South Korea in the 1960s, but now it is at the level of South Korea in the mid-to-late 1970s. North Korea is about 30 years behind us.

Recently, there were reports that President Trump tried to deliver a personal letter to North Korea’s ambassador to the UN, but it was rejected.

This is entirely possible. If Kim Jongun receives such a letter now, it would be a headache for him. North Korea currently expects to receive much from Russia. It likely believes that South Korea and the United States have little to offer.

President Lee Jaemyung has ordered the suspension of loudspeaker broadcasts toward North Korea, and it is reported that North Korea has stopped its broadcasts toward the South.

There are certainly some partial changes. However, we need to objectively assess how much these partial changes can actually bring about significant change. The decision to halt loudspeaker broadcasts toward North Korea was a good one. There is no need to provoke the other side unnecessarily. Reducing tensions is necessary.

However, North Korea has consistently stated that its condition for resuming inter-Korean dialogue is the suspension of South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises. Therefore, we must respond to North Korea’s demands. If someone says they want bread, but we keep offering rice or Jjajangmyeon, we are not addressing their actual request. Declarations of the end of the war are examples of this. If we absolutely cannot accept North Korea’s demands, then dialogue is impossible.

Deputy Chief Jeong predicted, "It is not now, but the Trump-Kim Jongun summit will take place."

What do you think about the possibility of a Trump-Kim Jongun or Lee Jaemyung-Kim Jongun summit?

A Trump-Kim Jongun summit will take place, though not immediately.

Is North Korea’s current construction of nuclear submarines a threat to the United States, and at the same time, a threat to us?

It is primarily a threat to the United States, and secondarily a threat to us. The reason North Korea developed ICBMs is not so much to launch them at the United States, but to acquire the capability to do so, thereby preventing U.S. intervention in the event of war on the Korean Peninsula.

Nuclear submarines further enhance North Korea’s survivability. If North Korea were to launch missiles from the U.S. mainland, there would be no way for the U.S. to intercept them. For this reason, nuclear submarines serve as a means to fundamentally block U.S. intervention in Korean Peninsula affairs, making them a very serious threat to us as well.

There have been reports that U.S. officials recently visited South Korea to discuss possible proposals to present to North Korea, including the suspension of joint military exercises. U.S. policy also appears to be undergoing significant change.

There are fundamental changes. During the Biden administration, there was a confrontation between the liberal and authoritarian blocs.

Now, "America First" is the prevailing approach, with a strong perception that even allies have been freeloading on U.S. security.

How should South Korea respond to North Korea’s nuclear armament and provocations such as building nuclear submarines?

At the very least, we must secure nuclear potential at the level of Japan. Japan was able to achieve nuclear potential within the NPT framework. When discussing nuclear potential, there are two main aspects: spent nuclear fuel reprocessing and uranium enrichment. If spent nuclear fuel is not reprocessed, once storage reaches capacity, nuclear power plants must be shut down. This is an urgent issue. As for uranium enrichment, the world is increasingly dependent on nuclear power. We are in a renaissance era for the nuclear industry. Artificial intelligence also consumes a lot of electricity.

As a result, the price of enriched uranium has recently surged several times over. About one-third of the enriched uranium we import comes from Russia. In the past, when there was less demand from Russia, it was natural for them to sell to us, but now there are other countries as well. Europe and the United States are also reducing their dependence on Russia, so it is essential for us to have our own uranium enrichment facilities for energy security. It makes no sense that South Korea, one of the world's top five nuclear powers, does not have such facilities. If a South Korea-U.S. summit is held, President Lee Jaemyung must raise this issue with President Trump. With nuclear potential, we can achieve two objectives: prevent spent nuclear fuel from reaching capacity and resolve the uranium enrichment supply issue. This also sends a message to North Korea.

Deputy Director Jung advised, "To bring about significant change, everything must be placed on the negotiating table."

Is it reasonable to consider Kim Ju-ae as Kim Jongun’s successor?

Kim Ju-ae has not been officially named as the successor, but she has been designated internally. Kim Jongun and Ri Solju have only two daughters, and Kim Ju-ae is the eldest.

National Intelligence Service Director Lee Jongseok has emerged. Some predict he will play a role in inter-Korean relations. What advice would you give to the Lee Jaemyung administration?

To bring North Korea to the negotiating table, we must change its calculation method. We need to thoroughly understand North Korea’s strengths and weaknesses, and sometimes take a hard line, while at other times adopt a softer approach. Conservatives tend to be too hardline, while progressives are often too soft. Even in romantic relationships, a push-and-pull dynamic is necessary. That is something we have been lacking. We also need to respond to what North Korea actually wants.

To bring about significant change, everything must be placed on the negotiating table. This includes normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations, normalization of North Korea-Japan relations, a peace treaty for the Korean Peninsula, suspension of South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises, a freeze and eventual dismantlement of the nuclear missile program, and so on. A long-term perspective and a lengthy process are required. We should set a goal for the next 15 years, and during that time, pursue step-by-step denuclearization by North Korea, with sanctions being eased accordingly, and prioritize concrete achievements in normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations and a peace treaty, rather than relegating them to the back burner.

Only through significant give-and-take can meaningful results be achieved. If denuclearization is 100%, a declaration to end the war is only 2-3%. We need to approach this with a comprehensive strategy. To do so, we should gather hundreds of conservative and progressive experts in our society, pool their ideas, and create a sophisticated, mid-to-long-term roadmap that everyone can accept.

I hope the new administration, through such bipartisan cooperation, will present a new vision that previous governments could not and become a country that not only acts as a driver but actually leads peace in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula.

※Click the video for more details.