[Presidential Election Analysis] ② Professor Park Myungho: "President Lee Must Always Keep in Mind Failing to Surpass Majority" [AK Radio]

"Lee Junseok Needs a Period of Reflection, Han Donghoon Must Further Develop His Capabilities"
"Doubts Remain About the People Power Party's Ability to Reconfigure Conservatism"
"A Runoff Voting System Should Be Introduced for Next Year's Local Elections"

On the morning of June 5 at 9 a.m., Park Myungho, a professor of political science at Dongguk University, appeared on Asia Economy's YouTube channel 'AK Radio.' He stated, "President Lee Jaemyung faces both opportunities and risks," adding, "I hope to see leadership that prepares for the mid-to-long term rather than just the short term." Professor Park also commented, "The key figures for the conservatives will be Lee Junseok and Han Donghoon," predicting, "With much time left until the general election, it will not be easy for the People Power Party to change."

What are the implications of the presidential election results?

The outcome was already decided before the election took place. It was fundamentally difficult to break away from the framework of an election judging the issue of martial law. The key point was the margin of victory. Attention was also focused on whether candidate Lee Jaemyung would surpass the majority threshold and whether candidate Lee Junseok would achieve a double-digit vote percentage. In that sense, the result is quite delicate. For the first-place candidate, it is somewhat disappointing; for the second-place candidate, it is ambiguous; and for the third-place candidate, it is rather disappointing.

The disappointment for the first-place candidate lies in the symbolism of surpassing the majority. Moreover, with Kim Moonsu and Lee Junseok combined, it was almost a 49 to 49 split. If even a single vote had pushed the result over the majority threshold, the symbolism would have secured significant political momentum. It would have been both a landslide victory and a sign of either caution or reserved support. In the end, the public has given all three top candidates a shared task: the restoration of politics and political leadership.

Was there anything noteworthy about the presidential campaign?

According to an evaluation by someone who worked at the National Election Commission for about 30 years, there has never been a presidential election as quiet as this one. Since the election was held due to impeachment, the atmosphere was not positive. Holding another election just three years later likely caused public fatigue. There have been three presidential impeachments in the National Assembly in about 20 years, so while one could call it dynamic, in the long run, it points to significant instability. In almost every aspect?economy, society, culture?Korea has nearly reached the level of an advanced nation, but politics is not leading, nor is it even keeping up. Even the major parties only released their policy pledges in the last week of the campaign.

Another feature of this election was the active involvement of former presidents, especially Lee Myungbak and Park Geunhye, from the conservative camp. Compared to the well-prepared Democratic Party, the People Power Party appeared confused. It was unclear what their goal was. Those who should have been held accountable did not fully take responsibility or make sacrifices. Kim Moonsu's campaign slogan was 'Fair and Square,' but to live up to that, they should have started by taking clear responsibility. It was a paradoxical slogan.

Did the People Power Party actually believe a reversal was possible?

The candidate replacement turmoil was almost a decisive blow to the People Power Party. While I don't think it significantly altered the overall trend, there were a few moments that gave rise to hopes for a reversal. Ultimately, I think their goals were different. With their own elections still far off, and with this presidential election and next year's local elections being the ones they were needed for, they may have seen no reason to take political risks.

From the perspective that nominations are important and that protecting them is crucial, we return to the question of what their true objective is. If this issue is not resolved, the People Power Party will find it difficult to escape its current situation. There is a growing possibility that it will become a 'TK Jaminryeon.' There is a chance that the broader conservative camp will split into a Seoul-metropolitan-centered conservative party and a Yeongnam-centered conservative party. The concerns of Yeongnam will likely deepen going forward.

The People Power Party also seems to be narrowing in terms of generations.

Isn't the party almost wiped out in the Seoul metropolitan area now? If you cannot win or at least compete in the region with the largest number of voters, in the past you could still rely on Yeongnam's advantage to maintain a competitive structure, but now that is completely gone. The reconfiguration of conservatism must focus on expanding generationally through the redefinition of conservative values and, regionally, on moving beyond the 'TK Jaminryeon' framework. Since the 2012 general election, the number of seats held by conservative parties has continued to decline.

How do you view the relationship between the People Power Party and the Reform Party?

They are facing a very difficult challenge. There has been little fierce debate or struggle over the party line. It is questionable whether the momentum for reform and renewal can be generated internally. Regarding the next or conservative leadership group, I think Lee Junseok and Han Donghoon will become the key figures. Ultimately, it may come down to generational change. The key issue is whether vested interests and established figures can demonstrate responsibility and sacrifice during this process. Isn't the value of conservatism supposed to start with responsibility? The fact that many National Assembly members still have a long time left in their terms may make things even harder for the People Power Party, raising doubts about whether there is any internal momentum for conservative reconfiguration.

Representative Lee Junseok needs time to recover. While there is potential, his limitations are also clear. There needs to be a turning point and a period of reflection. Former leader Han Donghoon needs to further develop his capabilities. In particular, it is important for him to deepen his understanding of political parties. Within a short period, he has served as both the ruling party leader and the emergency committee chair, which is an impressive record, but it is happening too quickly.

Is electoral system reform also necessary?

Since President Lee Jaemyung has also mentioned this, it depends on his determination. At least for some metropolitan mayors, a runoff voting system should be introduced. Given President Lee Jaemyung's remarks about aiming for multi-party politics, this could be the first litmus test to confirm his sincerity and credibility. The second step is to change the metropolitan councilor elections to a multi-member district system. Both of these measures ultimately aim for multi-party politics. The next step is to form a National Assembly that reflects the public's sentiment. Only then will constitutional revision be possible. Even if the number of seats does not perfectly match the percentage of votes, the assembly should be structured to be at least somewhat proportional, which also aligns with the goals of constitutional revision.

What is your view on President Lee Jaemyung's focus on 'growth,' 'integration,' and 'inclusion'?

It's not that we lack some secret formula for growth. It is a structural issue. As Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Changyong noted, this is simply our current capability. The fundamental cause is that we have failed to develop future growth engines over the past decade or so. The current leadership should focus on growth and prepare for the mid-to-long term, rather than seeking short-term effects by using fiscal policy to stimulate the economy and improve people's lives. This is similar to how former President Kim Daejung's investment in IT infrastructure laid the foundation for Korea to become an IT powerhouse today. Of course, in the short term, this may not produce results that benefit those in power. Establishing an emergency economic task force as the first executive order was an excellent decision. It is important to identify what needs to be done from a long-term perspective. The most crucial thing is leadership for integration, to become a president for all people.

*Click the video to watch the full interview

How do you evaluate the 'Kim Minseok as Prime Minister - Kang Hoonshik as Chief of Staff' system?

It is an appropriate choice. One regret is that it might have been better to go through the process of requesting the National Assembly to recommend a prime minister. If the Democratic Party, the People Power Party, the Reform Party, and even non-parliamentary parties were all invited to make recommendations, and then the nominee was appointed on the premise that the National Assembly would unanimously approve, it could have served as a symbolic gesture of integration. President Lee Jaemyung also pledged to introduce a prime minister recommendation system.

What are the opportunities and risks for the Lee Jaemyung administration?

The biggest opportunity is that the outcome of this election, which was a judgment on martial law and impeachment, was made possible by former President Yoon Sukyeol. The election environment could not have been more favorable. The key is how to leverage this as political momentum. There are lessons to be learned from former presidents Moon Jaein and Yoon Sukyeol. It is important not to simply do whatever one wants, but to identify the most important task at this critical moment. There is also the question of whether the monopoly of power is truly desirable.

The risk factor is that President Lee Jaemyung failed to secure a majority. This is something President Lee must always keep in mind. It is also necessary to look at the National Assembly not just in terms of the number of seats, but in terms of vote share. In an election that could hardly have been more favorable, where a 55% plus landslide would not have been surprising, there were still limitations. Another key issue is whether President Lee can overcome the doubts about his sincerity and credibility?dubbed 'Lee Jaemyung phobia'?and be recognized for leadership based on sincerity and trust.