Last Poll Before Blackout Shows Lee Jaemyung Still Leading [PolPol News]

Realmeter: Lee Jaemyung 49.2%, Kim Moonsu 36.8%
Variables Remain, Including Possible Unification
Impact of TV Debate Cannot Be Gauged by Polls

Even in the public opinion polls conducted immediately before the ban on publishing poll results begins on the 28th, Lee Jaemyung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, was shown to be leading Kim Moonsu, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, by a margin outside the margin of error. However, there were also polls indicating that if Kim Moonsu were to unify his candidacy with Lee Junseok, the presidential candidate of the Reform New Party, the race could become a close contest within the margin of error.

In public opinion polls conducted before the publication ban went into effect on the 28th, as stipulated by the Public Official Election Act, candidate Lee Jaemyung generally maintained the top position. In a poll released by Realmeter (conducted at the request of Energy Economy News on May 26-27 among 1,003 adults aged 18 or older nationwide, using a wireless phone ARS method), Lee Jaemyung received 49.2% support, leading Kim Moonsu, who received 36.8%, by a margin outside the margin of error. Lee Junseok received 10.3% support.

In a Korea Research poll (conducted at the request of KBS on May 25-27 among 1,000 adults aged 18 or older nationwide, using telephone interviews), Lee Jaemyung received 45% support, leading Kim Moonsu, who received 36%, by a margin outside the margin of error. Lee Junseok received 10%. In a MetaVoice poll, which surveyed a much larger sample of 5,028 people (conducted at the request of OhmyNews on May 26-27 among adults aged 18 or older nationwide, using a wireless phone ARS method), Lee Jaemyung received 47.1% support, ahead of Kim Moonsu, who received 39.1%.

However, when assuming a unified candidacy between Kim Moonsu and Lee Junseok, the poll results differed. In the Realmeter poll, under the assumption of a unified opposition candidate, Lee Jaemyung received 52.3% support, leading the unified candidate, who received 47.7%, by a margin outside the margin of error. In the MetaVoice poll, under the same assumption, Lee Jaemyung received 46.9%, while the unified candidate received 43.1%. Although the margin was still outside the margin of error, the gap had narrowed significantly. In the Korea Research poll, Lee Jaemyung received 44%, while the unified candidate received 41%, indicating a close contest within the margin of error.

The effects of the TV debate hosted by the National Election Commission on the night of the 27th were not reflected in the poll results. According to the Public Official Election Act, the results of presidential election polls conducted from the 28th until 8 p.m. on the day voting closes next month on the 3rd cannot be published. During this so-called "blackout" period, voters will not be able to check the final trends in voter sentiment through public opinion polls.

For detailed poll results, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.