Russia-Ukraine Talks to Begin at 4 p.m.; Zelensky and Putin Unlikely to Meet

Face-to-face negotiations in Istanbul to begin at 4:00 p.m. Korea Standard Time

Russian news agency TASS reported that ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine are set to begin in Istanbul, T?rkiye at 10:00 a.m. local time on May 15 (4:00 p.m. Korea Standard Time).

The talks are expected to be conducted as a working-level meeting between delegations from both countries, and the entire negotiation process will be closed to the media, according to the report. Sputnik news agency added that the venue is the same location used for negotiations more than three years ago.

There had been speculation about a possible direct meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but President Putin had previously signed an order to send a delegation led by advisor Vladimir Medinsky to the Istanbul talks. As a result, a direct summit between the two leaders appears not to be taking place.

Despite the absence of the Russian and U.S. presidents, this round of peace talks marks the first time since June 2022 that both sides have entered negotiations. It comes approximately three years and three months after Russia's initial military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

However, with both sides holding sharply opposing positions on the ceasefire proposal, it remains uncertain whether meaningful results will emerge from the first round of talks. The main point of contention is the territorial issue: Russia seeks recognition of Crimea and the four regions it occupied during the war (Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kherson) as its own territory. Ukraine, on the other hand, maintains that it will never cede any territory and insists on the restoration of its internationally recognized borders. While some believe the return of Crimea may be unrealistic, Ukraine's stance on this principle remains firm.

Postwar security guarantees are also a source of conflict. Ukraine is demanding security guarantees led by the United States instead of joining NATO. Russia, however, strongly opposes this, regarding the presence of foreign troops as de facto NATO intervention. Russia is also calling for Ukrainian neutrality and the lifting of Western sanctions, while Ukraine and Europe are advocating for a phased and conditional easing of sanctions.

Some observers have raised concerns that these talks may be a stalling tactic by President Putin to avoid additional sanctions against Russia amid U.S. and European pressure to end the war. President Putin has unilaterally declared ceasefires?such as a 30-hour Easter truce and a 72-hour Victory Day truce?whenever former President Trump made warning statements, but actual fighting between the two countries has continued, and no substantial ceasefire agreement has been upheld.

Even on May 11, when he proposed talks with Ukraine, President Putin stated, "I do not rule out the possibility of agreeing to a new, genuine ceasefire," but made no mention of the 30-day ceasefire proposal suggested by the West. He emphasized that this round of talks represents a "resumption" of the 2022 Istanbul negotiations, which ended without results in the early days of the invasion. He has repeatedly blamed Ukraine and the West for the failure of previous dialogue.