Putin Sends Aide to Istanbul, Excludes Himself from Delegation List
Reuters: "Trump Also Not Visiting"
Sharp Disputes Over Territorial Issues Between Russia and Ukraine
Concerns Over Russia Using Talks to Buy Time and Avoid Sanctions
Difficult to Expect Optimistic Outcome from Bilateral Negotiations
Russia and Ukraine will sit down at the negotiating table on May 15 (local time), more than three years after the outbreak of war. At one point, the possibility of a trilateral summit between the leaders of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine was raised, but this prospect ultimately fell through as both Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump decided not to attend. Russia is demanding that Ukraine abandon its bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), reduce its military forces, and cede territories gained during the war. It remains uncertain whether negotiations between the two countries will yield meaningful results.
The Kremlin announced on its website on May 14 that President Putin had signed an order to dispatch a delegation, led by aide Vladimir Medinsky, to the Istanbul talks. Medinsky also led the Russian delegation during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
President Putin's name was not included on the list of negotiators. Earlier, on May 11, Russia proposed direct talks with Ukraine, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded by suggesting a direct face-to-face summit between the leaders. The Guardian predicted that President Putin would not attend, stating, "Experts believe the chances of Putin personally appearing in Istanbul are less than 5%. Putin dislikes being pressured and is reluctant to sit down with Zelensky."
Reuters, citing U.S. officials, reported that President Trump, who is currently touring the Middle East, also decided not to visit T?rkiye. According to these officials, this announcement came immediately after President Putin effectively indicated his absence by releasing the delegation list. President Trump had previously hinted at the possibility of attending the talks if President Putin were to visit, raising expectations for a trilateral summit.
Despite the absence of the Russian and U.S. presidents, these peace talks mark the first negotiations between the two sides since June 2022. This comes approximately three years and three months after Russia's initial military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
However, it remains uncertain whether the first meeting will produce meaningful results, as both sides maintain sharply divergent positions regarding a ceasefire. The main point of contention is the issue of territory. Russia wants international recognition of Crimea and the four regions it occupied during the war (Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kherson) as Russian territory. Ukraine, on the other hand, has firmly stated that it will never cede any territory and insists on restoring its internationally recognized borders. While some believe the return of Crimea may be unrealistic, Ukraine's stance remains unwavering.
Postwar security guarantees are also a source of conflict. Ukraine is seeking security guarantees centered on the United States instead of joining NATO, while Russia strongly opposes this, regarding the stationing of foreign troops as de facto NATO intervention. Additionally, Russia is demanding Ukrainian neutrality and the lifting of Western sanctions, but Ukraine and Europe are advocating for gradual and conditional easing of sanctions.
Some observers worry that these negotiations may be part of President Putin's strategy to buy time and avoid actual sanctions against Russia amid U.S. and European pressure to end the war. President Putin has unilaterally declared ceasefires, such as a 30-hour Easter truce and a 72-hour Victory Day truce, whenever President Trump issued warning statements. However, fighting between the two countries continued, and no substantive ceasefire agreement was observed.
Even on May 11, when President Putin proposed talks with Ukraine, he stated, "I do not rule out the possibility of agreeing to a new, genuine ceasefire," but did not mention the 30-day ceasefire proposal put forward by the West. He emphasized that these talks represent a "resumption" of the 2022 Istanbul negotiations, which ended without results in the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He repeatedly blamed Ukraine and the West for the failure of previous talks.
Meanwhile, on the eve of the peace talks, President Zelensky and President Trump are urging President Putin to travel to Istanbul. According to The Guardian, President Zelensky said he is ready to travel to Istanbul at any time if President Putin attends, strongly criticizing, "If Putin does not come and only tries to buy time, it means he has no intention of ending the war." President Trump, who is scheduled to complete his final Middle East tour in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on May 15, also left open the possibility, stating, "If many lives can be saved, I would of course be willing to go to T?rkiye."
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