'Han Camp' Shin Jiho: "Han Donghoon's Momentum Rising, No Free Ride for Han Ducksoo" [So Jongseop's Sogteoview]

"You need to request an alliance based on tangible achievements"
"Han Ducksoo's approval rating is unimpressive compared to the past"
"Victory in the presidential election requires a future versus past framework"

Shin Jiho, the head of the special advisory group for Han Donghoon's presidential primary campaign in the People Power Party and a former lawmaker, gave a telephone interview with AK Radio at 9:30 a.m. on April 30. Shin stated, "Acting President Han Ducksoo's proposal to run and then unify with the People Power Party candidate looks like nothing more than a free ride," adding, "He should request an alliance based on some tangible achievements." If Han Donghoon is ultimately selected as the People Power Party candidate, it seems unlikely that discussions about unification with Acting President Han will gain much momentum.

Did you expect Han Donghoon to advance to the runoff?

I did. I anticipated that if there was a runoff, it would be a head-to-head match between Han Donghoon and Kim Moonsoo.

What led you to that expectation?

Han Donghoon started gaining momentum and has been on an upward trajectory day by day. While I thought we would have to wait and see the results of the party member vote, during the three consecutive days of debates on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, I could sense through various channels that party members were making a strategic judgment that only Han Donghoon could defeat Lee Jaemyung.

Are you confident that Han Donghoon will become the People Power Party candidate?

Yes. In general elections, retrospective voting tendencies that evaluate past events often emerge, but in presidential elections, forward-looking, future-oriented voting tendencies prevail. This is a well-established theory in political science. Victory requires framing the election as future versus past. In a Han Donghoon versus Lee Jaemyung matchup, Han Donghoon represents the future, while Lee Jaemyung represents the past. This applies not only to generational and cognitive aspects but also, if you look at the Constitutional Court's decision, it essentially suggests that the antagonistic symbiosis between Yoon Sukyeol and Lee Jaemyung has damaged Korean politics. If Han Donghoon is replaced by Kim Moonsoo, the dynamic changes. Lee Jaemyung has claimed that the spirit of this presidential election is to put an end to internal strife, but Kim Moonsoo has defended martial law. In that case, Lee Jaemyung becomes the future, and Kim Moonsoo becomes the past.

Some figures who worked in Hong Joonpyo's campaign have declared their support for Kim Moonsoo. Do you have any special strategies to win over the party base?

That's an issue involving just a few lawmakers. There was a certain age group where Hong Joonpyo performed strongly in various polls and such. He was the overwhelming frontrunner among people in their 20s and 30s, even outperforming Han Donghoon. There is something of a "Hong Joonpyo fandom" among the 2030 demographic. After Hong Joonpyo was eliminated, these supporters are now showing a trend of inevitably backing Han Donghoon. The 2030 supporters who backed Hong Joonpyo are quickly shifting their support to Han Donghoon. I confirmed these trends through online communities and similar platforms.

Tonight's debate will be the decisive battleground.The key question is whether Han Donghoon or Kim Moonsoo is the candidate who can hold his own against Lee Jaemyung in debate and even corner him. Rather than personal preference, people will make a strategic judgment about whether Han Donghoon or Kim Moonsoo is the candidate who can face Lee Jaemyung in debate and win.

Kim Moonsoo opposed impeachment, while Han Donghoon supported it. With the runoff divided into pro-impeachment and anti-impeachment camps, do you foresee any internal fallout after the final candidate is selected?

I don't think it will be significant. Neither Hong Joonpyo nor Ahn Cheolsoo, who were eliminated, have expressed any dissatisfaction with the results. I believe that if Han Donghoon is ultimately chosen as the candidate, Kim Moonsoo will also actively cooperate.

There is ongoing talk about unification and a "big tent" with Acting President and Prime Minister Han Ducksoo. How do you assess Han Ducksoo's competitiveness?

In the past, there were two cases where the Prime Minister acted as President after the President was impeached by the National Assembly: Goh Kun and Hwang Kyoahn. Both rapidly rose as strong presidential contenders and enjoyed high approval ratings for a considerable period. Prime Minister Goh Kun maintained an unshakable first place in the 30% range for a long time, and Acting President Hwang Kyoahn also achieved nearly 20% support in multi-candidate scenarios. Compared to these two, Han Ducksoo's current approval rating is rather unimpressive.

If Han Ducksoo runs, do you think he should quickly unify with the People Power Party candidate who is elected?

If Han Donghoon becomes the final candidate, it will be difficult for Han Ducksoo to enter the race. He already lacks a strong justification for running, and the argument that a referee is jumping in as a player is weak. If Han Donghoon is selected as the People Power Party candidate, it becomes even harder for Han Ducksoo to run. We need to wait and see about his candidacy; I do not agree with treating his run as a foregone conclusion.

It seems like Han Ducksoo's candidacy is already decided.

If he runs as an independent and then proposes unification with the People Power Party candidate after the candidate is selected, it just looks like an attempt to hitch a free ride. Those who entered the People Power Party primary paid deposits of several hundred million won and went through intense debates, enduring tremendous hardship, while someone who did nothing says, "Let's have a final showdown with me." This is completely lacking in fairness and procedural legitimacy. Especially, the 2030 generation, which is highly sensitive to fairness, will turn away. If Han Ducksoo wants to avoid controversy over free rides and preferential treatment, he needs to request an alliance with the People Power Party based on some achievements of his own. There is talk about a "HaHa alliance" with Lee Junseok, the Reform New Party candidate, since they are both Harvard alumni. Before requesting unification with the People Power Party, he should first make the "HaHa alliance" happen and show that he has built up some political capital. Only then would it make sense for him to propose a big tent.

What do you think about an alliance with Lee Junseok, the Reform New Party candidate, and others?

If Han Donghoon becomes the candidate, there will be a lot to do. First, he needs to form an Avengers-like team. Building a team that inspires confidence at that level is extremely important. If political engineering makes unification inevitable, then it should be executed quickly and decisively.

※ Click the video to watch the full interview.