Kim Moonsoo, Ahn Cheolsoo, Han Donghoon, and Hong Joonpyo Advance to Second Presidential Primary
Ahn's Strong Showing Creates a Two-to-Two Split
No Candidate Expected to Secure a Majority Due to Divided Voter Preferences
Former Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moonsoo, lawmaker Ahn Cheolsoo, former party leader Han Donghoon, and former Daegu Mayor Hong Joonpyo (listed in alphabetical order) have advanced to the second preliminary round of the People Power Party's presidential primary. With lawmaker Ahn's unexpected strong performance, the primary has shaped into a contest between the pro-impeachment and anti-impeachment factions. As voter preferences are divided based on perceptions of martial law and impeachment, there are expectations that the People Power Party's presidential candidate will not be decided until May 3.
According to the announcement on the 22nd, the four candidates advancing to the primary are divided into two groups: former Minister Kim and former Mayor Hong, who opposed the impeachment of former President Yoon Sukyeol, and lawmaker Ahn and former leader Han, who supported the impeachment. This results in a two-to-two contest.
On the 23rd, posters of the candidates advancing to the second round of the 21st presidential election were posted in front of the People Power Party office in the National Assembly main building. The second round will be held on the 27th to 28th with a method of '50% party member voting and 50% public opinion survey.' April 23, 2025 Photo by Kim Hyunmin
The National Election Commission has stated that if any candidate secures a majority in the opinion poll for the four finalists, that candidate will earn a direct ticket to the main election without a runoff. However, as votes are divided between the pro- and anti-impeachment factions, most believe it will be difficult for any candidate to achieve a majority. This is why many predict that the final candidate will be determined not on the 29th, when the results of the four-way race are announced, but on May 3, when the runoff between the final two candidates is concluded.
There is also a view that former leader Han, who was among the top three in the first round of the primary, is now at a disadvantage in the competition. This is because support from the pro-impeachment camp could split between him and lawmaker Ahn. The second round of polling will combine 50% party member votes and 50% public opinion survey results. For this reason, it is widely expected that anti-impeachment sentiment will have a greater influence.
However, as demonstrated by lawmaker Ahn's strong showing, there is also the possibility that party members may make a strategic choice with the general election competitiveness in mind. Song Seokjun, who serves as head of external cooperation for Han's campaign, said in a phone interview, "This is evidence that perceptions of impeachment and martial law are changing among both the party base and centrist voters."
It also appears unlikely that anti-impeachment candidates will be able to secure a majority. While the primary rules, which give greater weight to party members, are advantageous to them, the conservative base's desire for a "winning candidate" remains a variable. Another factor is the differing stances of the two candidates on the "Han Ducksoo draft" theory. Former Minister Kim is actively in favor of unification, whereas former Mayor Hong remains reserved on the matter.
Political commentator Park Sangbyung said, "Even the conservative base recognizes that an extreme right-wing image cannot gain broad public support," adding, "The direction of Yoon's influence and the potential candidacy of acting President and Prime Minister Han Ducksoo will also affect the primary landscape."
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