[Interview] "Yoon's Impeachment, Major Cost of Diplomatic Vacuum with the US... Must Increase Defense Budget to Seize Negotiation Leadership"

Two U.S. Experts Analyze Yoon Seok-yeol's Impeachment
Bruce Bennett, Senior Researcher at RAND Corporation
Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at Brookings Institution

While the Constitutional Court's acceptance of former President Yoon Seok-yeol's impeachment has brought an end to South Korea's political turmoil for the time being, American experts have diagnosed that the country has paid a considerable price in terms of a diplomatic vacuum with the United States during a period of rapid changes in the international order under Donald Trump's second term. They also forecast that it will be difficult to expect substantial diplomatic achievements on major issues such as tariffs until the early presidential election scheduled for June 3, and advised that the next government to be launched should secure the initiative in negotiations with the Trump administration through a preemptive promise to increase defense spending. Furthermore, there was an analysis that future South Korea-U.S. relations could fluctuate depending on the new government's policy stance toward China.

On the 7th (local time), Bruce Bennett, senior researcher at the RAND Corporation in the U.S., said in a video interview with Asia Economy, "With the direction of South Korea's next administration uncertain, Trump (U.S. President Donald Trump) will likely observe South Korea's political situation for the time being," adding, "The possibility of Trump attempting meaningful diplomatic contact with South Korea before the June election is low."

He pointed out that the biggest cost South Korea paid due to the emergency martial law declaration and impeachment crisis was the diplomatic vacuum with the U.S. Bennett said, "The absence of leadership made South Korea more vulnerable to the Trump administration's tariff policies," and noted, "Trump is a thorough transactional leader, so if South Korea had proactively presented a substantive compromise, there was a good chance the tariff pressure could have been eased."

Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution, evaluated, "The Constitutional Court's ruling has brought an end to the 18-week political crisis, and through this impeachment process, the robustness of South Korea's democratic institutions has been demonstrated." However, regarding diplomacy with the U.S., he said, "The likelihood of Trump meeting leaders such as Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo to directly discuss issues before the South Korean election is very low," and predicted that "only working-level diplomatic and trade discussions will take place," making visible negotiation settlements before June unlikely.

Experts advised that once the next government is inaugurated in early June, it should secure the initiative in negotiations with the Trump administration through preemptive measures such as increasing defense spending as part of pragmatic diplomacy with the U.S. Bennett said, "Trump has consistently demanded increased defense cost-sharing (costs for the U.S. Forces Korea presence) from allies, and now is the time for South Korea to increase its defense spending to about 3% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP)," emphasizing, "A strategy where South Korea first shows its willingness to expand defense spending and then demands corresponding compensation could be an effective diplomatic approach when dealing with Trump, who values practical deals."

There was also a forecast that future South Korea-U.S. relations will vary depending on the next government's policy stance toward China.

Yeo said, "Regardless of whether the People Power Party or the Democratic Party comes to power, the next government will basically pursue a friendly South Korea-U.S. relationship," but analyzed, "If the Trump administration demands a tougher China policy from South Korea, a Democratic Party government may seek to draw a line to some extent." On the other hand, regarding North Korea policy, he anticipated, "If the Democratic Party comes to power, there could be room for cooperation, intertwined with Trump's willingness to improve relations with Kim Jong-un (Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea)."

Bennett predicted, "Although Lee Jae-myung, a leading opposition presidential candidate, has recently emphasized a moderate or conservative image, his past critical remarks about the U.S. could become an obstacle to building trust with future U.S. administrations," and added, "If the Democratic Party comes to power, there is a possibility that South Korea-U.S. relations could weaken to some extent."

There was also a point made that resolving political polarization is a prerequisite to preventing extreme political turmoil in South Korea. Yeo expressed concern, saying, "Although the political crisis triggered by the martial law and impeachment has been resolved for now, polarization and a lack of tolerance and patience entrenched throughout South Korean politics remain fundamental problems," and warned, "Such structural political issues could pose a significant challenge to the next South Korean president."