[Impeachment of Yoon Seok-yeol] Foreign Experts Focus on Early Korean Presidential Election and Economic Policy Shift

Bloomberg Economics and SG Highlight Lee Jaemyung,
Democratic Party Leader, as Key Presidential Candidate in Reports

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is leaving the meeting room after delivering a statement at the National Assembly on April 4 regarding the Constitutional Court's ruling on the dismissal of President Yoon Seok-yeol. 2025.4.4 Photo by Kim Hyun-min

On the 4th, as the Constitutional Court decided to dismiss President Yoon Suk-yeol, overseas experts focused on the possibility of an early presidential election and a shift in South Korea's economic policies. With Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, leading in opinion polls among the next presidential candidates, expectations grew for more proactive monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.

Kwon Hyo-sung, South Korea economist at Bloomberg Economics, a research arm of Bloomberg News, stated in a report that day, "The Constitutional Court's decision to dismiss President Yoon Suk-yeol triggers an early presidential election, which is expected to bring a substantial shift in South Korea's policy direction."

He added, "This ruling puts an end to months of political uncertainty following President Yoon's attempted declaration of martial law last December," and "at the same time, it opens the door for progressive economic and social reforms."

On the same day, the Constitutional Court unanimously upheld the impeachment motion passed by the National Assembly, officially suspending President Yoon's duties. According to Article 68, Paragraph 2 of the Constitution, an election must be held within 60 days from that day, i.e., before June 3. The election date must be announced at least 50 days prior to the election day.

The market's attention is turning to the next presidential candidates. According to a weekly public opinion poll by Gallup Korea released one hour before the impeachment ruling, if an early presidential election is held, 52% expect a regime change (opposition candidate winning), while 37% expect regime continuity (ruling party candidate winning). In terms of political leader preference, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea led with 34%, followed by Kim Moon-soo, Minister of Employment and Labor, at 9%, Han Dong-hoon, former leader of the People Power Party, at 5%, Hong Joon-pyo, Mayor of Daegu, at 4%, and Oh Se-hoon, Mayor of Seoul, at 2%.

Economist Kwon evaluated Lee Jae-myung by saying, "He previously advocated for the introduction of basic income targeting youth and farmers, proposing funding through land and carbon taxes, but later moderated his stance somewhat. However, his core policy direction remains centered on a distribution-focused economic philosophy through state intervention." He also mentioned Lee's economic strategies including ▲strengthening a state-led growth model ▲promoting green transition and digital innovation ▲focusing investment on strategic industries such as artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and renewable energy.

He further noted, "Currently, the Democratic Party of Korea holds a majority in the National Assembly, so if the Lee Jae-myung administration is launched, there is a high possibility of political alignment that allows major policies to be implemented without legislative resistance," adding, "This significantly lowers the barriers necessary for executing progressive reforms and expansionary fiscal policies."

Meanwhile, Sung Ki-yong, Asia macro strategist at global financial group Soci?t? G?n?rale (SG), also diagnosed in a report that the dismissal ruling of President Yoon Suk-yeol increases the likelihood of strengthened fiscal policies and increased government bond issuance. He said, "Attention is now shifting to an early general election," and "Lee Jae-myung is leading in opinion polls."

He continued, "Domestic trends and U.S. tariffs suggest that additional monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will be implemented," and "the final interest rate in South Korea this year is expected to fall below 2%. The previous forecast was 2.25%."