The Paris Agreement is based on the global long-term goal of limiting the average global temperature increase to within 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. It focuses on strengthening responses to climate change by having all countries participate in climate action from 2020 and conduct implementation reviews every five years.
However, a study has drawn attention by showing that current climate policies aimed at achieving the Paris Agreement goals may actually reduce the global area of farmland, potentially negatively impacting food security amid the food crisis.
(From left) Professor Pei Chao, Beijing Normal University; Professor Jeon Haewon, Graduate School of Green Growth and Sustainable Development, KAIST. Provided by KAIST
On the 2nd, a joint research team led by Professor Haewon Jeon from the Graduate School of Green Growth and Sustainable Development at KAIST and Professor Feichao Gao from Beijing Normal University announced research results analyzing the impact of achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target on global farmland and food security.
The joint research team predicted and conducted a detailed analysis of global land changes in 5 km² units. Contrary to previous studies that predicted an increase in farmland under the 1.5-degree scenario, the analysis concluded that about 12.8% of global farmland could decrease under current climate policies based on the Paris Agreement. This result was derived by considering the impact of climate policies across sectors and land use intensity together.
In particular, South America is expected to suffer the greatest damage with a 24% reduction in farmland, and the team predicted that 81% of the total farmland decrease will be concentrated in developing countries.
An even bigger problem is that the export capacity of major food-exporting countries is expected to decrease by 12.6%, which could negatively affect the food security of countries dependent on food imports. The joint research team predicts that the agricultural export capacities of major food-producing countries?the United States, Brazil, and Argentina?will decrease by 10%, 25%, and 4%, respectively.
This study was jointly conducted by researchers from KAIST, Beijing Normal University, Peking University, and the University of Maryland in the United States. Previously, in their first study published in Science in 2021, these research teams revealed that “the probability of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees with current reduction plans is only 11%.” They also predicted the probability of temperature increases exceeding 2 degrees even if countries implement their greenhouse gas reduction targets.
In a second study published in Nature Climate Change in 2022, the research team proposed three key strategies as concrete measures to achieve the 1.5-degree target: ▲ raising countries’ short-term reduction targets by 2030 ▲ increasing the decarbonization rate after 2030 from the current average annual 2% to up to 8% ▲ shortening the carbon neutrality achievement timeline of each country by up to 10 years.
In particular, the research team warned that delaying the target upgrades after 2030 could cause an “overshoot” phenomenon, where global temperatures rise sharply for decades even if the 1.5-degree target is eventually achieved.
Professor Haewon Jeon stated, “When establishing global decarbonization strategies, it is necessary to consider sustainability across various sectors,” and pointed out, “If we focus solely on greenhouse gas reduction without considering the broader context of the sustainability of the Earth’s ecosystem, unintended side effects may occur.”
He added, “Above all, developing countries may face a double burden of reduced farmland and increased import dependence due to climate policies,” emphasizing, “International cooperation is essential to achieve carbon neutrality while protecting food security.”
Meanwhile, the research results (paper), co-corresponding authored by KAIST’s Professor Haewon Jeon and Beijing Normal University’s Professor Song Changqing, were published on the 24th of last month in the international academic journal Nature Climate Change and were selected as the cover paper for the April issue.
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