2027 Invasion Theory Gains Traction
Alternative Military Service Regulations Revised
Year of Invasion Scenario Included in Han Kuang Exercise
As China's military pressure on Taiwan continues, Taiwanese authorities have revised the alternative military service (substitute service) regulations in preparation for wartime and other emergencies, according to Taiwanese media such as United Daily News on the 24th. They have also begun training for various scenarios of Chinese air strikes, specifically assuming the year of invasion, shifting to a state of readiness.
Taiwan Government Revises Alternative Military Service Regulations
According to United Daily News, Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council and Ministry of National Defense amended and announced the law related to "the method of summoning and performing service for men who have completed alternative service" on the 17th. The revised regulations lifted restrictions on the duration, frequency, and number of training summons for alternative service veterans during emergencies and wartime support.
The scope of those subject to training summons was expanded to include those discharged up to 9 years after completing alternative service, instead of only those within 8 years. Additionally, the annual one-day training summons for 8 years after discharge was increased. The previous restriction limiting the maximum number of days for service summons during emergencies and wartime to 60 days per year was also removed.
A source told United Daily News that Taiwan's comprehensive national defense system is divided into four parts: main combat units focused on volunteer soldiers, defense units centered on mandatory service, a reserve force system based on reservists, and cooperative measures for alternative service personnel. Citing Mainland Affairs Council data, the source added that there are currently about 270,000 reservists who have completed alternative service.
The Kuomintang administration under Ma Ying-jeou changed to a four-month conscription system in 2013, operating it alongside the volunteer soldier system. However, as military, diplomatic, and security conflicts between the U.S. and China over Taiwan intensified, efforts to strengthen Taiwan's military power gained momentum, and the mandatory service period was extended to one year starting January last year.
Assuming Year of Invasion... 2027 Invasion Theory Gains Traction
In a recent report submitted to the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense announced that this year, for the first time, the annual joint military exercise Han Kuang will be conducted assuming a specific year of Chinese invasion.
Previously, U.S. intelligence agencies revealed that Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered the capability to invade Taiwan to be ready by 2027. The international community also fears that China might invade Taiwan before 2027, when Xi’s five-year "third term" ends and the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China will determine whether he continues his leadership.
Taiwan has already activated strategic simulations assuming that the Chinese military has effectively completed preparations to blockade Taiwan. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 23rd, about a dozen scenarios involving Chinese blockades or similar actions were reviewed in recent Taiwanese war games.
China is demonstrating its means to blockade Taiwan. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, in October last year, a large-scale joint air and sea exercise involving a total of 125 Chinese military aircraft, including fighter jets, helicopters, and drones, was conducted. This was a drill simulating a blockade of Taiwan.
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