[Global Focus] "Becoming Another Ukraine?" Taiwan Contemplates Response to Trump 2.0

China Raises Threat Levels Day After Day
Taiwan Confirms Increase of Defense Budget to 3 Percent
Trump Maintains Ambiguous Stance on Taiwan's Protection

After quietly supporting Taiwan to check China, the United States has noticeably stepped up its 'Taiwan bashing' since the inauguration of President Donald Trump's second term. Some speculate that Trump, known as a self-proclaimed 'master of the deal,' will leverage Taiwan's protection from China and the world's number one semiconductor foundry company, TSMC, to pressure Taiwan into purchasing American products. Amid China's escalating military threats toward Taiwan and the real-time witnessing of America's 'Ukraine passing' in the social media era, voices within Taiwan have grown louder, calling for "awakening."

China Raises Threat Levels... Taiwan Also Increases Defense Budget to 3%

China's threat level toward Taiwan has been rising every year. On the 5th (local time), Premier Li Qiang announced at the National People's Congress that this year's defense budget would increase by 7.2% compared to last year. On the 14th, China's 'Anti-Secession Law,' enacted in 2005, marked its 20th anniversary. This law explicitly allows the use of military force if Taiwan declares independence or if peaceful reunification is deemed impossible. Notably, 2027, two years from now, has long been regarded by U.S. government officials as the year when a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could become possible. This is linked to the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the military modernization goals set for that year.

In response to China's threats, the Taiwanese government has strengthened its defense capabilities over the past three years with public support. Ukraine, which has endured a difficult three-year fight since Russia's invasion in February 2022, has become an important reference for Taiwan. Taiwan increases its defense budget annually, allocating 2.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defense spending. President Lai Ching-te recently pledged to expand this to 3%. However, the United States seems to find even this insufficient. Elbridge Colby, nominee for U.S. Department of Defense policy deputy secretary, argued at a Senate hearing that this ratio should be raised to 10%. This aligns with President Trump's assertion that Taiwan should increase its defense spending share.

Change in U.S. Attitude... Taiwan's Public Opinion Shaken

In this situation, the U.S. diplomatic and security stance remains unclear. Past U.S. presidents have maintained strategic ambiguity to avoid provoking China. President Trump also responded at a cabinet meeting on the 26th of last month regarding the obligation to protect Taiwan, saying, "I will never comment. I do not want to face that position (the obligation to defend Taiwan)." Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department removed the phrase 'opposition to Taiwan independence' from its website last month, drawing protests from the Chinese government. China International Broadcasting reported that Guo Zhaokun, spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, strongly criticized the U.S., saying, "The United States must stop supporting Taiwan independence and cease actions that seriously damage U.S.-China relations."

Taiwanese senior officials have tried to soothe public opinion by emphasizing Taiwan's strategic importance. France Au, Deputy Minister of Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, recently told the Japanese English-language newspaper The Japan Times that regarding Taiwanese concerns about U.S. security commitments, "We believe the United States will not abandon the Indo-Pacific region," adding, "If the U.S. lets China dominate this region, that danger will immediately approach the U.S. mainland." Wellington Ku, Taiwan's Minister of National Defense, also stated, "I am confident the United States will never abandon the Indo-Pacific," and "Taiwan is at the heart of Washington's regional strategy."

Despite government assurances, Taiwanese people remain skeptical of U.S. promises due to America's attitude toward Ukraine. The U.S.-Ukraine summit broadcast live worldwide on TV and the internet last month shocked many in Taiwan. Taiwan has emotionally identified with Ukraine, as reflected in Vice President Xiao Meiqin's 2023 statement, "Ukraine's success is Taiwan's success." Ian Chai, a fashion designer living in Taipei, Taiwan's capital, criticized, "He treated Zelensky like a subordinate. We can no longer trust America's promises to its allies," which resonated widely in Taiwanese online communities, according to Hong Kong daily South China Morning Post (SCMP). Other users commented, "This incident revealed Taiwan's true position," and "Is Taiwan something Trump can discard anytime?" The U.S. Wall Street Journal (WSJ) described the summit as "Putin's victory."

Trump Also Targets TSMC... Part of His 'Art of the Deal'

Adding to this, President Trump has even taken issue with TSMC, the source of Taiwan's national wealth. Specifically, he targets TSMC's influence in the global semiconductor industry and the resulting trade surplus with the U.S. According to the U.S. online media Axios, Trump has frequently expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan to the press. On the 7th, in the White House Oval Office, he said, "We used to have the semiconductor business, but now it's entirely in Taiwan's hands. Taiwan stole it from us. Most of it is in Taiwan, and some is in South Korea." This implies that South Korea is also within Trump's scope.

Taiwan's trade surplus with the U.S. was estimated at $111.4 billion in 2024, with a significant portion consisting of semiconductors and high-tech products. TSMC is regarded by Taiwanese people as a source of pride and a symbolic entity, comparable to night markets. Known to produce 90% of the world's advanced semiconductors, TSMC has served as an 'invisible fortress' preventing China's invasion of Taiwan. Semiconductors are power in the global artificial intelligence (AI) competition, often likened to an arms race.

TSMC's recent announcement of a $100 billion (approximately 145 trillion KRW) investment plan in the U.S. White House is also seen in this context. Following the surprise announcement, concerns arose in Taiwan about the potential loss of core technologies. Regarding this, Liu Ching-ching, Chairperson (minister-level) of Taiwan's National Development Council (NDC), reaffirmed at a legislative inquiry on the 12th that the U.S. investment would apply the 'one generation behind technology' rule to American factories. This means that Taiwanese companies will operate advanced processes (N) in Taiwan, while factories abroad, including in the U.S., will handle one generation lower processes (N-1). He emphasized, "The government will firmly uphold three principles: 'No transfer of the latest technology,' 'No transfer of the most critical technology,' and 'National security comes first.'"

Boni Glaser, Director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told U.S. public radio NPR in an interview that President Trump's aggressive stance toward Taiwan might be a kind of "art of the deal." 'The Art of the Deal' is also the title of a book written by Trump. She said, "I believe Trump is trying to secure leverage to make Taiwan act as he wishes." This suggests that, like Japan and India, which have offered 'gift packages' to the U.S., Taiwan will be encouraged to purchase weapons and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Growing Calls for 'Self-Defense' Within Taiwan

Within Taiwan, voices have grown stronger calling for self-defense and for having 'cards' to play against the U.S. President Trump's criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, "You don’t have the cards," was a painful remark for Taiwan as well. Wang Ting-yu, chairman of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan Foreign and National Defense Committee, emphasized a 'win-win' strategy as key to maintaining smooth relations with the Trump administration. This means Taiwan is an ally that increases U.S. arms purchases. He also stressed strengthening Taiwan's defense capabilities, saying, "We are not increasing the defense budget because friends requested it; we realized the need ourselves." However, Taiwan also faces political challenges, as opposition parties have pushed for defense budget cuts or freezes, highlighting the need for political consensus.

A former legislator told NPR, "President Lai Ching-te risks becoming a chess piece rather than a player," adding, "Taiwan needs a strategy to balance between the U.S. and China to avoid being betrayed by Trump." Deng Rui-yun, an activist openly supporting Ukraine, raised her voice, saying, "Taiwanese people need to think about what we can offer the U.S. Only then can we prevent the U.S. from abandoning us and instead make it provide more assistance."