[MarketING] Continued Uncertainty in the US, When Will KOSPI Recover to 2600?

Weekly KOSPI Expected to Range Between 2,500 and 2,650

As uncertainty originating from the United States continues, the stock market is also maintaining a sluggish trend. This week (March 17-21), the index is expected to move in line with the flow of semiconductor stocks ahead of several events.

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Last week, the KOSPI rose by 0.11% and the KOSDAQ by 0.9%. Najunghwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, explained, "Policy uncertainty stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump continues, leading to increased volatility in the stock market. In an interview last Sunday, Trump was asked whether he expects a recession this year, to which he responded that the U.S. economy is currently in a transitional phase, stirring market concerns about a recession. Additionally, as tariff conflicts between the U.S. and Canada escalated, the KOSPI fell intraday to the 2,500 level on the 11th. However, as the tariff dispute between the U.S. and Canada somewhat eased, the index rebounded on the 12th."

Despite ongoing uncertainties such as tariffs, the domestic stock market is evaluated to have performed relatively well. Lee Kyungmin, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, "During the U.S. economic slowdown phase, concerns about stagflation spread due to policy uncertainty and intensified tariff war fears. Nevertheless, non-U.S. stock markets and the KOSPI showed relatively resilient performance."

Shin Seungjin, a researcher at Samsung Securities, analyzed, "Compared to the U.S. market, the KOSPI is showing a steady trend because sectors sensitive to U.S. trade policies, such as IT and automobiles, have entered valuation lows, and news that could serve as a basis for a rebound is emerging one by one. Republican senators have publicly opposed the repeal of the CHIPS Act, and recent legacy price increases have strengthened the theory of a bottoming in memory semiconductors in the first half of the year."

There is a forecast that if tariff uncertainties are resolved, buying momentum led by foreign investors will rapidly flow in. Researcher Shin said, "Uncertainty about U.S. tariff policies is ongoing, and the reason the Korean won is not relatively strong against the dollar's recent weakness is largely due to Korea's industrial structural factors sensitive to export conditions. However, if tariff uncertainties dissipate, the Korean market could see a faster-than-expected inflow of buying by foreign investors."

This week, several major semiconductor-related events are scheduled, drawing market attention to the semiconductor sector's flow. From March 17 to 21, Nvidia's artificial intelligence (AI) conference, GTS 2025, will be held. Researcher Na said, "At this conference, information about the Blackwell Ultra, scheduled for release in the second half of the year, and the next-generation graphics card Rubin will be announced. Recently, AI momentum has been shaken due to U.S. tariff and recession concerns. However, there is a precedent where AI investment momentum continued after Jensen Huang's keynote speech, so this time Jensen Huang's keynote may also have a positive impact on semiconductor and AI-related stocks." NH Investment & Securities projected the KOSPI's expected band this week to be between 2,500 and 2,650.

Kang Jinhyuk, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, "Since the concentration on U.S. big tech (large information technology companies) has significantly eased, a technical rebound is worth expecting. In particular, the semiconductor sector should be closely watched to see if Nvidia's GTC 2025 event can restore the weakened AI investment sentiment, and Micron's earnings announcement is an important event related to the direction of semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix."

Key schedules this week include U.S. retail sales for February on the 17th, China's February industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment, and U.S. industrial production for February on the 18th. On the 19th, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting is scheduled. On the 20th, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held, and Micron's earnings will also be announced.

Researcher Lee said, "This week, attention should be paid to the direction of monetary policies by major central banks. Although no immediate interest rate changes are expected at the FOMC early on the 20th, market focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, where he will evaluate the recent administration policies' economic impact and hint at the direction of monetary policy." He added, "After confirming retail sales on the 17th, the Fed may indicate the possibility of resuming the rate cut cycle by reflecting cooling consumer sentiment and employment, which is a key point to watch. Since the market has already priced in the possibility of up to three rate cuts within the year following the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement, depending on the tone of the remarks, there could be caution against disappointment selling or profit-taking movements."