30,000 Gather at Jeonnam Provincial Office for Anti-Impeachment Rally for Yoon
Impact of 'Honam Neglect Theory' and One-Man System on Anti-Lee Jae-myung Sentiment
Last weekend, the largest-ever conservative rally was held around Geumnam-ro in Gwangju, the sacred place of democratization, raising concerns that Lee Jae-myung's leadership in Honam is once again being put to the test ahead of the early presidential election.
According to political circles, the number of participants at the anti-impeachment rally for President Yoon Seok-yeol, held on the 15th in front of the old Jeonnam Provincial Office in Dong-gu, Gwangju, unofficially estimated by the police, reached 30,000. This figure is more than three times the 10,000 gathered at the nearby pro-impeachment rally. Some within the ruling party interpreted this as a 'change in Gwangju' and a 'demand for Lee's withdrawal from the presidential race.'
The opposition warned against overinterpretation, calling the protest a 'foreign mercenary mobilization rally,' but some began to closely monitor the large-scale conservative rally held in Honam, a traditional stronghold of the Democratic Party. This is due to concerns that the traditionally weak support for Lee Jae-myung in Honam, pointed out during his administration, could become a weak link in the presidential election.
In fact, these concerns surfaced during the transition to the 'Lee Jae-myung 2nd term system.' In the Democratic Party's regional primary last August, Lee recorded the lowest vote share in Honam, where one-third of the party members are concentrated. Among the 13 regions where the primary was held, Lee's vote share was lowest in Jeonnam at 82.48%, with Gwangju (83.61%) and Jeonbuk (84.79%) also ranking low. This contrasts with his average vote share of around 90% in other regions.
Another significant factor was the surge of Yeongnam-origin personnel into Lee Jae-myung's leadership team ahead of last year's general election, which fueled the 'Honam neglect theory.' This was due to growing resistance to Lee's one-man rule following the demise of pro-Moon Jae-in factions during the nomination process. Lee's legal risks have also heightened the 'anti-Lee Jae-myung' sentiment among Honam voters. After the first trial verdict on Lee's Public Official Election Act case, his support in Honam sharply declined. Depending on the outcome of the second trial, his approval ratings could fluctuate significantly.
The Democratic Party's weakening grip on Honam is also reflected in recent opinion polls. According to a survey conducted by Gallup Korea from February 11 to 13 among 1,004 men and women nationwide aged 18 and older (with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points), the Democratic Party's support in Gwangju and Jeolla in the second week of February slightly rose to 62% compared to the previous week. However, this is low compared to past general elections when support hovered around 70%. The proportion of undecided voters was also high at 18%, second only to the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions.
This poses a variable for Lee, who is trying to consolidate power by visiting Honam, where potential rivals from the pro-Moon faction are also active. Gyeonggi Governor Kim Dong-yeon has visited Honam 14 times since taking office, and former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum and former lawmaker Kim Doo-kwan have also visited Gwangju and Jeonnam to increase their connections with local residents. At a meeting with local media editors and news directors in Gwangju the day before, Representative Park Ji-won said, "This presidential election is a close battle between conservatives and progressives, with a 50 to 49 split, making Honam the most important region. Support in Honam must exceed 90%. If Lee Jae-myung cannot succeed, I am considering running myself."
Former lawmaker Jang Sung-min pointed out on social media, "Lee needs to accurately recognize the public sentiment of the 30,000 people gathered at Geumnam-ro in Gwangju."
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