[Polpol News] Lee Leads Ruling Party's Kim Moon-soo, Oh Se-hoon, Hong Joon-pyo in Virtual Quantum Matchup

Realmeter Poll
Regime Change Sentiment Leads Regime Continuation Beyond Margin of Error

Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea and a potential opposition candidate in the next presidential election, was found to be leading Kim Moon-soo, Minister of Employment and Labor, Oh Se-hoon, Mayor of Seoul, and Hong Joon-pyo, Mayor of Daegu, by a margin beyond the margin of error in hypothetical one-on-one matchups. The public opinion favoring regime change also surpassed that favoring regime continuation beyond the margin of error within four weeks.

According to a poll released on the 16th by Realmeter (commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper, conducted from the 13th to 14th among 1,000 nationwide voters aged 18 and over using 100% automated wireless response method, with a response rate of 7.2%, and a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), Lee ranked first with 43.3% in the 'Next Presidential Candidate Preference' survey listing 10 major candidates from both ruling and opposition parties. Minister Kim ranked second with 18.1% (first within the ruling party). Following them were Mayor Oh and Mayor Hong with 10.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon received 5.7%, and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min got 2.5%. Among opposition figures, former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon, former Governor of Gyeongnam Kim Kyung-soo, Gyeonggi Governor Kim Dong-yeon, and former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum each scored in the 1% range.

In hypothetical one-on-one matchups against the three ruling party candidates considered potential next presidential candidates, Lee led all three beyond the margin of error. Against Minister Kim (31.8%), Lee received 46.3%. Against Mayor Oh (29.0%), Lee recorded 46.6%. In the matchup with Mayor Hong (26.2%), Lee (46.9%) was also ahead.

In a survey on the preferred ruling power for the next presidential election, the opinion favoring regime change surpassed that favoring regime continuation. 51.5% of respondents preferred regime change, ahead of 44.5% who favored regime continuation. Initially, around the time of the emergency martial law, the opposition showed overwhelming superiority, but before the third week of January, the regime continuation opinion briefly led within the margin of error. Since then, public opinion was split evenly within the margin of error. In this survey, the regime change opinion led by 7 percentage points, surpassing the margin of error.

In party support surveys, the Democratic Party rose by 2.3 percentage points from the previous week to 43.1%. The People Power Party fell by 1.4 percentage points to 41.4%. The gap between the two parties' support rates is within the margin of error. This reverses the situation since the third week of January, when the People Power Party had been leading the Democratic Party within the margin of error.

For more details, please refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission.