JoongAng Ilbo Poll: "Lee Jae-myung Leads All Candidates"
But Margin of Error Applies Against Oh Se-hoon and Hong Joon-pyo
A public opinion poll revealed that if an early presidential election is held and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo run as the People Power Party candidates, they would engage in a neck-and-neck race with Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, within the margin of error.
The JoongAng Ilbo disclosed the results on the 27th after commissioning Gallup Korea to conduct a telephone interview survey of 1,031 adults aged 18 and over nationwide from the 23rd to the 24th (with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points).
The survey results showed that Lee held an advantage over all candidates in hypothetical one-on-one matchups against seven pro-government politicians. However, the race was close when Lee faced Mayor Oh or Mayor Hong. Against Mayor Oh, the results were 46% to 43%, and against Mayor Hong, 45% to 42%, indicating Lee’s narrow lead within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points).
By region, Mayors Oh and Hong led in Seoul, Gangwon, Daejeon-Sejong-Chungcheong, Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK), and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (PK). Conversely, Lee was ahead in Incheon-Gyeonggi, Gwangju-Jeolla, and Jeju.
By age group, Lee was favored among those in their 40s and 50s, while support for Mayors Oh and Hong was stronger among those in their 60s and 70s or older.
However, results were mixed among the 18-29 and 30s age groups, which tend to have a high proportion of undecided voters. In their 30s, both Mayors Oh and Hong led, but among 18-29-year-olds, Lee (43%) and Mayor Oh (38%) were in a close race. Additionally, Mayor Hong (47%) held an advantage over Lee (35%) in this younger group.
Other pro-government presidential candidates, including Kim Moon-soo, the Minister of Employment and Labor whose approval ratings have recently surged, showed a significant gap behind Lee outside the margin of error. In a hypothetical one-on-one race between Lee and Minister Kim, Lee had 47% and Kim 38%. The differences between Lee (44%) and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People Power Party (37%), and Lee (42%) and former People Power Party lawmaker Yoo Seung-min (35%) were each 7 percentage points.
In a survey on preferred next president, not limited to one-on-one matchups, Lee showed a clear lead with 36%. He was followed by Minister Kim (16%), Mayor Hong (10%), former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon (8%), Mayor Oh (7%), Gyeonggi Governor Kim Dong-yeon (4%), National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik (2%), and lawmaker Lee Jun-seok (1%).
Furthermore, in the survey on the presidential election outcome, more respondents favored a change of government rather than maintaining the current administration. The opinion that "an opposition candidate should be elected for a regime change" was 51%, while "a ruling party candidate should be elected to maintain the regime" was 42%.
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