"Not an Exception for Korea Either... Tariff War Warning from Trump Official Starting April"

Kelly Ann Shaw, Former Deputy Director of the U.S. National Economic Council:
"Korea Is Not a Safe Zone," Warns at Korea Economic Association Seminar
Chain Reaction of Side Effects from China Expected if Tariff War Escalates

An economic official from the 'Trump first term' warned that South Korea is no exception in the United States' tariff war. There is talk that the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) could also be included in the 'trade agreement review' ordered by President Donald Trump. Analysts have suggested that tariff bombs could be dropped on South Korea starting as early as April.

On the 24th, Kelly Ann Shaw, former Deputy Director of the U.S. National Economic Council (NEC), expressed this view at a seminar hosted by the Korea Economic Association titled "100 Hours Since the Dawn of the Trump 2.0 Era and the Korean Economy."

Kelly Ann Shaw, former Vice Chair of the U.S. National Economic Council (NEC), is delivering a keynote speech via video conference at a seminar hosted by the Korea Economic Association on the 24th at the FKI Tower Conference Center in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Korea Economic Association

Former Deputy Director Shaw stated, "The United States is conducting a comprehensive review of its trade policy," adding, "While Mexico, Canada, and China will be the primary targets, South Korea is not 'off the hook' either."

She particularly emphasized, "The possibility of renegotiating the Korea-US FTA should also be kept open." President Trump has instructed the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to review existing trade agreements. Although South Korea was not specifically named, considering the trade surplus with the U.S., there are concerns that the Korea-US FTA may not escape scrutiny.

Last year, South Korea's exports to the U.S. reached $127.8 billion, and the trade surplus hit a record high of $55.7 billion. According to Trump's logic, South Korea, which runs a surplus against the U.S., is a country that opposes 'fair trade.' In his first year in office in 2017, President Trump also threatened to terminate the Korea-US FTA and demanded renegotiations.

Former Deputy Director Shaw also pointed out a specific timing for when the 'tariff bombs' might fall. She predicted, "If tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China are imposed for 'non-economic reasons' such as illegal immigration and drug trafficking, tariffs on all countries worldwide will intensify after government investigations are completed in April."

Kim Chang-beom, Executive Vice Chairman of the Korea Economic Association, and other guests are taking a commemorative photo at a seminar hosted by the Korea Economic Association on the 24th at the FKI Tower Conference Center in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Korea Economic Association

During the discussion, there were repeated calls to prepare not only for the direct impact of the Trump administration's second-term trade policy but also for its ripple effects. Choi Seok-young, former Economic and Trade Officer at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, pointed out, "If the U.S. tariff imposition escalates into a 'tariff war' with retaliations from various countries, the global supply chain will be seriously disrupted."

Concerns about the 'chain reaction' continued. Jo Su-jeong, professor at Korea University's Law School, said, "As U.S. pressure on China intensifies, Chinese goods and capital could flood into the Korean market," and suggested, "To prevent the side effects of the China wave, foreign investment security reviews should be strengthened." Kang Tae-soo, visiting researcher at the Korea Economic Research Institute, warned, "The U.S. tariff policy is acting as upward pressure on the exchange rate. If this coincides with a U.S. interest rate hike, the won-dollar exchange rate could surge sharply."