[How about this book] "Korea, a Typical Case of Comprehensive Population Crisis"

British demographer Paul Morland's book, The Last Population Theory, addresses the global issues of low birth rates and aging populations, analyzing their causes and exploring potential solutions. The book is composed of 10 chapters, with Chapter 3, titled "Today's Low Birth Rates and Their Causes," receiving particular attention. Morland provides insights by explaining the low birth rate phenomenon from various perspectives, including religion, politics, and economics.

From a religious standpoint, Morland analyzes that regions adhering to Abrahamic religions (Christianity, Islam, Judaism) tend to have higher birth rates compared to areas dominated by Buddhism or Hinduism. Politically, he explains that people raised in large families tend to have conservative tendencies, and those with conservative political views generally have higher birth rates than progressive individuals.

Economically, there is an inverse correlation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and birth rates, as well as between education levels and birth rates. As economic and educational levels rise, women's participation in society becomes more active, leading to a decline in birth rates. Additionally, anti-natalism, driven by concerns over the suffering children might face in the future due to issues like the climate crisis, is also identified as a cause of declining birth rates.

Morland points to South Korea as a representative country facing a population crisis caused by the combination of these various factors. South Korea has transformed into a fiercely competitive society amid rapid urbanization and economic growth, which has exacerbated the low birth rate problem. In fact, South Korea's fertility rate is the only one among OECD member countries to fall below 1. It dropped from 1.24 in 2015 to 0.72 in 2022. A fertility rate of 0.8 means that 50 couples will have only 40 children, implying that about 90% of the population could disappear within three generations.

The book also highlights population crises in countries around the world. In Italy, there were 17 children under 10 years old for every elderly person over 80 in 1950, but now the ratio has decreased to about 1 to 1. In Thailand, there were over 70 children under 10 per elderly person over 80 in 1950, but now it has dropped to about 1 to 3 or 4. China, having lost its position as the world's most populous country to India, currently has a fertility rate around 1, with the population decreasing by approximately 850,000 people annually. Japan, with a fertility rate of 1.26 and severe aging, remains trapped in a long-term economic slump.

Morland points out that aging and declining birth rates lead to reduced labor force, weakened productivity, and decreased tax revenue, while increasing the burden on pensions and healthcare services. As seen in Japan's case, medical expenses for those over 80 are six to seven times higher than for the younger population, and social burdens are growing. In Japan, annual consumption of incontinence pads has already surpassed that of diapers, and it is estimated that about 68,000 people die alone each year.

While warning about the severity of population issues, Morland expresses skepticism toward the optimistic view that scientific and technological advancements can solve these problems. In the past, British economist Thomas Malthus feared population growth and food shortages, but technological progress increased agricultural productivity, disproving his predictions. However, Morland argues that today's aging population actually hinders technological innovation itself, as innovative ideas primarily come from younger generations, which are shrinking due to aging. Indeed, Japan has seen a decline in patent applications alongside the stagnation of companies like Sony, Toyota, and Canon, which once led innovation.

Morland warns that maintaining a future society with a rapidly increasing dependency ratio?the ratio of the population to be supported relative to the working-age population?will inevitably require extreme tax increases. He emphasizes the need for active government intervention and expanded roles. If innovation cannot be expected amid the population crisis of labor shortages and aging, humanity has reached a point where more fundamental solutions must be sought.

The Last Population Theory | Written by Paul Morland | Translated by Lee Jae-deuk | Miraeui Chang | 304 pages | 19,000 KRW