Tariff Threats and Territorial Expansion Ambitions... The Stronger 'MAGA' Has No Friend or Foe [Trump Again]

Weaponizing Tariffs for Diplomatic Leverage
Excluding 'Free Riders' Through Defense Cost Pressure
Direct Deal-Making Diplomacy with Close Ties to 'Strongmen'

'MAGA (Make America Great Again)'. This is the presidential campaign slogan of President-elect Donald Trump and succinctly represents the diplomatic and security policy direction the United States will take over the next four years. Returning stronger, Trump’s 'America First' policy uses tariffs indiscriminately as a weapon to pressure the world and secure practical gains on issues such as illegal immigration. Recently, Trump has even revealed ambitions to incorporate Greenland and the Panama Canal, signaling a combination of American isolationism and expansionist diplomacy.

Tariff Threats and Negotiation Tactics

Even before taking office, President-elect Trump has raised the threat of a 'tariff bomb' indiscriminately targeting both adversaries and allies, heightening fears of a trade war. During his campaign, Trump pledged a universal tariff of 10-20% on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. In November last year, he specifically threatened to impose a 25% tariff on neighboring countries Mexico and Canada. He declared that the U.S. would no longer engage in losing trades with countries that enjoyed trade surpluses by exploiting their weaker currencies against the dollar.

However, the purpose of Trump’s tariff threats is not merely to normalize trade relations. They are also a means to enforce his diplomatic and security agendas, such as combating illegal immigration and drug crimes. For example, when the tariff threat loomed, Claudia Sheinbaum, President of Mexico, called Trump to express her willingness to actively cooperate in strengthening border controls against drug trafficking and illegal immigrants. Earlier this month, Trump announced stricter regulations on small imports targeting China and measures to crack down on counterfeit goods. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also hurriedly flew to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida to apologize in response to the tariff threats.

Robert Lawrence, senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), assessed, "At the moment, Trump’s tariff threats are rhetorically effective," adding, "They are particularly effective against European Union (EU) members who doubt Trump’s willingness to follow through on his words." Mark Blyth, professor of political economy at Brown University, noted, "Trump also used tariffs as leverage during the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Whether he will actually implement any of his statements remains speculative until he takes office on January 20."

Vanishing U.S. Defense Umbrella... Pressure to End 'Free Riding'

Trump’s 'bluff diplomacy' is also evident in his pressure on traditional allies to increase their defense spending. He has demanded NATO member countries raise their defense budgets from the current guideline of 2% of GDP to 5%, reaffirming the principle of no 'free riding' under the U.S. security umbrella. He has made it clear that if these countries do not pay their fair share for America’s role as the 'world’s policeman,' the U.S. will not defend them even if Russia, which has engulfed Ukraine, advances into the heart of Europe.

Steven Mnuchin, nominated chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) and Trump’s 'economic strategist,' pointed out in a November report titled 'User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trade System' that "the universal tariffs proposed by Trump could be a price for providing the U.S. security umbrella." He warned that if U.S. allies such as South Korea, Japan, and NATO retaliate with counter-tariffs, it could provide the U.S. with an excuse and justification to shirk its collective defense obligations. Experts interpret Trump’s uncompromising policy that does not distinguish friend from foe as a diplomatic 'game changer' designed to create an international environment favorable to the U.S. before his inauguration.

Territorial Expansion Ambitions of the 'Trump Doctrine'

Trump’s second term isolationism, which turns allies into adversaries for the sake of American interests, has recently been mixed with 'Trump-style expansionism.' Pressuring the return of the Panama Canal and eyeing the purchase of Greenland, Trump shocked the international community last week by suggesting at a press conference that military incorporation is not off the table. On the surface, he claims the strategic importance of Greenland, which connects Europe and North America, requires protection from hostile countries like Russia and China, but it also appears he aims to seize rare earth minerals worth $10 trillion (approximately 1,450 trillion KRW) buried there.

Trump showed no hesitation in diplomatic rudeness, even proposing to Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, who visited Mar-a-Lago to protest tariff threats, that Canada become the '51st state' of the U.S. He also increased pressure by threatening to use coercive economic measures to incorporate Canada into the U.S. Trudeau, whose political base was already shaky due to declining approval ratings, ultimately resigned after suffering this 'diplomatic humiliation' from Trump.

The front page of the conservative-leaning New York Post, which described the territorial expansion ambitions of President-elect Donald Trump as the "Trump Doctrine." Republican House Foreign Affairs Committee Ex...

However, experts generally agree that Trump’s territorial expansion ambitions are more of a negotiation strategy than a real threat. Dan Hamilton, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution, explained, "Many of Trump’s statements are bluffs and tested strategies designed to confuse negotiation partners and force them to back down, enabling him to make better deals for his real objectives."

There is also a view that Trump is employing the 'madman theory' used by former President Richard Nixon, who threatened nuclear war against the Soviet Union to end the Vietnam War. Lozan McManus, assistant professor of political science at Pennsylvania State University, noted, "There is reason to believe Trump is using the madman theory, making people think he is somewhat crazy to gain an advantageous position in negotiations."

'Salesman' Trump, Close Ties with 'Strongmen'

Trump’s bromance with so-called 'strongmen' such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un also fuels uncertainty about his unpredictable diplomatic moves. Like during his first term, Trump is expected to personally engage in direct diplomacy based on personal friendships with leaders of adversarial countries to resolve issues.

For example, at his first press conference after winning the December election last year, he praised Xi Jinping as "my friend and an amazing person," and broke tradition by inviting Xi to his inauguration on January 20. Regarding Kim Jong-un, whom he met three times including a summit during his first term, Trump drew attention by saying, "It’s a good thing to get along with a nuclear-armed North Korea."

Having boldly promised to end wars in Ukraine and the Middle East immediately after taking office, Trump plans to have a phone call with President Putin within weeks. While Trump’s diplomatic capabilities will be tested again, it remains uncertain whether he can bring an early end to these 'two wars' given the clear differences between the parties involved. Apparently aware of this, Trump has postponed his original goal of ending the wars 'within 24 hours of inauguration' to 'within six months.'

Mass Deportation of Illegal Immigrants... 'Strengthening the Border'

While pursuing a foreign policy that mixes isolationism and expansionism externally, Trump’s second-term administration will crack down domestically by deporting large numbers of illegal immigrants and 'locking the doors.' Since his campaign last year, Trump has consistently blamed illegal immigrants for crime, unemployment, and rising housing prices, and has promised to begin mass deportations from day one in office. He has shown a willingness to spend whatever it takes. The Republican Party plans to bundle border security measures with various tax cut promises from Trump’s early administration to push a single bill through Congress while political momentum is high.

Supporting Trump’s determination is Tom Homan, nominated as the next 'border czar' and former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Under Homan’s leadership, the U.S. is expected to first deport criminals and immigrants with removal orders. The administration is also open to unannounced workplace raids and the possible deployment of the military if necessary.

NBC reported, "Trump campaign officials are exchanging views with ICE on cracking down on illegal residents," and that they are considering large-scale raids on illegal residents in Washington D.C. timed with Trump’s inauguration. According to The New York Times (NYT), there are approximately 13 million immigrants with permanent residency in the U.S., and as of 2022, an estimated 11.3 million illegal residents.