Ban on Public Remarks After Questioning '5%' Growth
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that after a prominent Chinese economist stated at a forum held in the United States last month that China's economic growth rate over the past 2-3 years has fallen short of the official target (5%), the Chinese government moved to silence him.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Chinese President Xi Jinping recently ordered an investigation and disciplinary action against Gao Sanwen, chief economist at SDIC Securities.
This appears to be due to remarks Gao made last month at an event hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C. He said, "We do not know the exact real growth figures for China," adding, "My guess is that the official figures for the past 2-3 years are close to an average annual growth rate of 5%, but the actual figures are probably around 2% on average." He also stated, "Their efforts to revitalize the economy are likely very opportunistic," and "I think they ultimately will not be able to confidently fulfill their promises."
These remarks were shared privately among various economists and analysts both inside and outside China.
Sources said President Xi was particularly angered by Gao’s questioning of the authorities’ ability to take necessary measures to stimulate economic growth. They also said that while Gao can keep his position, he has been banned from making public statements for a certain period by Xi’s order.
In fact, WSJ reported that Gao was scheduled to attend an event hosted by Nankai University in China on the 11th as an invited speaker but the appearance was canceled. The organizers stated that Gao canceled due to personal reasons.
WSJ assessed that the leadership’s response to Gao’s criticism demonstrates the sensitivity of Chinese authorities regarding economic issues. China is striving to dispel concerns that it could fall into a prolonged economic downturn due to a real estate market collapse, rising debt, and overproduction that could trigger deflation. There is also worry that such negative economic outlooks could affect responses to tariff threats from the U.S. Donald Trump administration.
Prior to Gao, last year former deputy director Zhu Hengfeng of the Economic Research Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences was reportedly detained and dismissed after posting on WeChat (China’s version of KakaoTalk). Chinese media reported that Zhu was severely punished for "slander against the Central Committee (Party Central Committee)."
Even after Gao’s punishment, this trend continues. The China Securities Association, supervised by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, warned major securities firms at the end of last month to ensure that economists and analysts play a positive role in interpreting government policies and boosting investor confidence. According to the association, failure to comply could result in dismissal.
At a recent meeting, Cai Qi, director of the General Office of the Communist Party Central Committee and Xi Jinping’s chief of staff, urged strengthening economic publicity and expectation management. WSJ described this as a request to eliminate negative commentary about the economy.
Meanwhile, the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that the directive to the Securities Association targets chief economists who make unprofessional and irresponsible remarks. When asked about any connection to Gao or President Xi, the commission responded simply, "This is not true," without further explanation, WSJ reported.
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