[The Editors' Verdict] In the Trump Era, Can South Korea Use China as a Lever?

As the inauguration of Donald Trump, the President-elect of the United States, approaches, the decades-long effort to build the South Korea-US alliance is threatened by a strong "America First" stance. The diplomatic strategy of President Yoon Suk-yeol, who pursued diplomacy leaning toward the US while distancing from China, is also on the line.

Although the US sends a fundamental message that the South Korea-US alliance will remain strong during Trump's second term, the experience during Trump's first term (2017?2021), when the US pressured South Korea to increase defense costs and caused tension in the alliance with Trump-style America First policies, means our government cannot afford to let its guard down.

South Korea has pursued diplomacy maintaining an appropriate distance with neighboring countries China and Japan according to the strategy of 'Geun-gong-won-gyo (近攻遠交: attack nearby and maintain close relations with distant countries)'. It has focused on strengthening the South Korea-US alliance, the core of security cooperation. The perception that frequent disputes occur with neighboring countries but there are no complex interests or conflicts with distant countries influenced closer ties with the US.

It is worth calculating how much practical benefit our economy and diplomacy have gained from pursuing diplomacy leaning toward the US to emphasize the need to break away from humiliating pro-China diplomacy. In 2023, the US accounted for 43.7% of South Korea's overseas direct investment (ODI), the highest since 1988. We must also prepare for the possibility that increased Korean investment in the US could become useless in front of President-elect Trump, who called 'tariffs' the most beautiful word. Trump's strategy is to reduce or withdraw subsidies to foreign companies and impose tariffs to make overseas companies build factories in the US voluntarily. For Korean companies, which have long relied on the US government, this means worrying about subsidy withdrawals due to amendments to the semiconductor law.

With Trump's second term, the US will try to use South Korea more strongly to gain an advantage in the US-China hegemonic war. Even if the friction arises from economic interests temporarily, the shock will inevitably be great for South Korea, which has much to rely on the US and has invested heavily in the South Korea-US alliance.

It is time to turn to pragmatic diplomacy that finds ways to better utilize China, a huge market with a population of 1.4 billion, instead of diplomacy leaning toward the US. Although growth is slowing, the potential of the huge Chinese market is significant. China is also a powerful country capable of countering global trade pressures during the Trump era.

China is already sending love calls to South Korea. Even conservative Chinese state media, which criticized South Korea for pursuing an extreme pro-US policy, has recently softened its view of South Korea. Since November last year, China has exempted South Korean citizens from visa requirements for visits and has expanded the number of foreign game licenses (permission for foreign game companies to operate games in China) issued annually, providing relief to the domestic gaming industry. China imposed the 'Hanhanryeong' (restrictions on Korean music, dramas, and films) from 2016 in response to the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, but recently, after eight years, Korean pop music concerts have resumed in China.

The government must attempt to regain balance in the precarious tightrope walk between the US and China, who are checking each other in the hegemonic competition. In the Trump era, can South Korea leverage China as a fulcrum?