Reliability of North Korea's Claimed Hypersonic Missile [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Missile Development Disables Defense Network as a 'Game Changer'
Additional Verification Pending for Glide Phase Flight Speed and More

North Korea announced that it has successfully test-fired a new type of hypersonic medium-to-long-range ballistic missile. If North Korea completes the development of hypersonic missiles, it could neutralize the opponent's missile defense system. As a weapon that destroys the opponent's war deterrence capability, it is called a 'game changer.' Military authorities say further verification is needed.

Yonhap News

Yonhap News

On the 7th, North Korea claimed success in the test launch of the 'new hypersonic medium-to-long-range ballistic missile,' emphasizing that "it can effectively penetrate any dense defense barrier and inflict severe military damage on the opponent."

Based on the launch photos released by North Korea, the missile is presumed to be the same type as the Hwasong-16 Type A hypersonic missile launched by North Korea in April last year. It is a model equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). Hypersonic missiles generally refer to missiles that fly within the atmosphere at speeds exceeding Mach 5 and follow an irregular trajectory different from the typical parabolic ballistic trajectory.

It was reported that the overall flight of North Korea's missile the previous day was smoothly conducted and detected by South Korean, U.S. military, and intelligence authorities. The key issue is whether the missile exhibited flight characteristics befitting the name 'hypersonic missile.'

North Korea stated that "the missile's hypersonic glide warhead flew at a speed 12 times the speed of sound, reaching a first apex altitude of 99.8 km and a second apex altitude of 42.5 km, following the planned flight trajectory." According to the monitoring screen shown in the photos publicly released by North Korea, the missile ascended after launch, reached the first apex, and around that time, the warhead separated and then repeatedly descended and ascended to reach the second apex before entering the terminal phase.

North Korea Does Not Disclose Speed During Missile Glide Phase

During the launch in April last year, North Korea also announced that the missile reached two apexes. However, at that time, South Korean and U.S. authorities assessed that after the first apex, the missile maneuvered horizontally before descending. If North Korea actually succeeded in reaching a second apex, i.e., changing trajectory mid-flight, it would represent a technological advancement. However, the two instances of ascent and descent are considered insufficient for a hypersonic missile.

However, the speed during the missile's glide phase was not disclosed. North Korea claimed a maximum speed of Mach 12, but it is unclear whether the speed exceeded Mach 5 after losing energy while reaching two apexes at that speed.

Military Authorities: High Possibility of Deception Regarding Flight Distance

Lee Sung-jun, spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a regular briefing that "there is a high possibility of deception regarding the flight distance and the second apex altitude claimed by North Korea," adding, "The range analyzed by South Korea, the U.S., and Japan is about 1,100 km, and there was no second apex altitude." He further stated, "It is judged that hypersonic missiles will have difficulty demonstrating performance within the relatively short Korean Peninsula."

Further analysis is needed to determine whether North Korea used new materials in missile development. North Korea stated, "New carbon fiber composite materials were used in the production of the engine body of the new hypersonic missile." The government includes carbon fiber, which can be used in solid-fuel missile development, in its sanctions monitoring against North Korea, so North Korea's claim of applying this material despite sanctions is a boast. The military said, "Additional analysis is needed regarding the material."

Controversy Over Use of New Materials

At the 'North Korean Defense Development-2024' weapons exhibition last year, North Korea showcased the Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and displayed carbon fiber. At that time, North Korea exhibited an item resembling a bundle of carbon fiber in a glass case in front of the Hwasong-19. This suggested that the Hwasong-19 was made using carbon fiber, which has higher strength than metal and can reduce the weight of ballistic missiles. It is presumed that the same material was used in the hypersonic missile. Unlike typical ballistic missiles that fly in the sparse space of outer space, hypersonic missiles fly longer distances within the atmosphere, requiring the application of new materials resistant to drag and friction.

Some raise the possibility of technological cooperation with Russia. Hong Min, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "North Korea expressed that acquiring technology related to materials, flight, and guidance systems is 'absolutely not easy,' so while there may be internal technological improvements, the possibility of Russian technological cooperation cannot be excluded."