ICBM Launch Movements Around Pyongyang... Will They Fire Hwasong-19? [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Mobile Launch Platform Introduced Last Year Moved to Pyongyang
Possible Provocation Before Inauguration of President-Elect Trump

North Korea moved a transporter erector launcher (TEL) capable of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) around the Pyongyang area at the end of last month. Following the launch of a ballistic missile presumed to be a hypersonic missile on the 6th, there are prospects that North Korea could launch an ICBM ahead of the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Yonhap News

On the 7th, a military official stated, “We confirmed that one ICBM-launching TEL was deployed around Pyongyang around the 25th of last month,” adding, “We expect additional movements such as the launch of a new ICBM soon.”

The TEL that North Korea moved appears to be the one unveiled last year. In November last year, North Korea held the ‘Defense Development-2024’ arms exhibition in Pyongyang, where it revealed an 11-axle TEL capable of launching the new ICBM ‘Hwasong-19.’ The Hwasong-18 uses a 9-axle (18-wheel) TEL, and the Hwasong-17 uses an 11-axle (22-wheel) TEL. At that time, North Korea also unveiled the ‘Hwasong-19’ along with a graphic panel showing two types of warheads it can carry: single warhead and multiple warheads. The Hwasong-19 is estimated to have a range of around 16,000 km when launched at a normal angle. If the multiple warhead technology works in practice, a single launch of the Hwasong-19 could strike multiple points on the U.S. mainland.

There are reasons why North Korea intends to launch an ICBM. Internally, this year is the final year of the five-year plan for defense development, so they need to show results. Also, ahead of President Trump’s inauguration, they want to demonstrate their presence by launching a missile. North Korea had maintained a rather cautious atmosphere, refraining from missile provocations and not reacting to Trump’s election victory after launching several short-range ballistic missiles on November 5th last year, just before the U.S. presidential election.

North Korea may focus on launching an ICBM rather than the three additional reconnaissance satellites it pledged at the 2023 Workers’ Party plenary meeting. This could be because a successful satellite launch might serve as a ‘smoking gun’ indicating that technology was transferred from Russia.

U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken stated at a joint press conference following the South Korea-U.S. foreign ministers’ meeting held at the Seoul Ministry of Foreign Affairs building the previous day, “There is credible information that Moscow intends to share advanced space and satellite technology with North Korea.”