Trump-Driven Deregulation Hopes... Heating Up the Autonomous Vehicle Market [AK Radio]

Driverless and Pedalless Autonomous Vehicles Likely to Be Allowed
After GM's 'Cruise' Business Withdrawal
Google and Tesla Expected to Dominate
Different Technologies and Business Models
AI Integration Accelerates Technological Advancement

The autonomous vehicle market is buzzing ahead of the launch of the second Trump administration in 2025. This is due to expectations that the autonomous vehicle regulations, which were approached somewhat conservatively under the Biden administration, will be significantly relaxed. Unlike the Biden administration, which focused on regulating big tech, the second Trump administration is expected to actively foster the autonomous driving industry to secure technological supremacy.

According to experts, the next Trump administration's commitment to promoting autonomous vehicles is clearly reflected in its appointments. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is being appointed to a key government position, and Sean Duffy, who has strongly advocated for easing autonomous vehicle regulations, has been nominated as Secretary of Transportation. Bloomberg reported that the Trump transition team is reviewing the relaxation of autonomous vehicle regulations as a top priority for the Department of Transportation.

Currently, U.S. autonomous vehicle manufacturers are limited to producing 2,500 units annually. There are forecasts that the second Trump administration will expand this limit to as many as 100,000 units. Additionally, the production of fully autonomous vehicles without steering wheels and accelerator pedals is expected to be permitted. This is anticipated to greatly contribute to design innovation and cost reduction in autonomous vehicles.

The U.S. autonomous vehicle market is currently dominated by a duopoly of Google Waymo and Tesla. GM's Cruise, despite investing $10 billion (approximately 14.7 trillion KRW), completely halted operations after a pedestrian accident in 2023. Other traditional automakers' autonomous driving projects, such as Hyundai Motor's Aptiv and Ford and Volkswagen's Argo AI, have mostly been discontinued or remain stagnant.

Waymo has already launched driverless taxi services in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. It began full commercial service in June 2024, receiving positive consumer feedback. Waymo is characterized by precise driving using LiDAR sensors, but the sensor cost, which runs into tens of millions of KRW per unit, is cited as a barrier to mass adoption.

On the other hand, Tesla adopted a philosophy that "humans drive using only their eyes, so cars should be the same," employing eight cameras and an AI-based vision system. Initially, the feasibility was questioned, but the recently released autonomous driving system FSD 13.2 version has been praised for achieving perfect autonomous driving from parking lot to parking lot. Tesla is also preparing the 'Cybercab,' an autonomous taxi priced below $30,000 (approximately 44 million KRW), targeting mass production in 2026.

Experts predict that the business strategies of Waymo and Tesla will resemble Google's Android and Apple's iOS, respectively. Waymo has chosen a strategy of providing autonomous driving platforms in collaboration with automakers including Hyundai Motor, while Tesla has adopted a vertically integrated strategy developing both hardware and software in-house. Tesla is also planning an Uber-like model that utilizes privately owned vehicles as autonomous taxis.

In China, IT companies such as Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent, along with electric vehicle manufacturers like BYD and Geely Automobile, have entered the autonomous driving market. The Chinese government views autonomous vehicles as a future growth engine following electric vehicles and is providing full support. However, since autonomous vehicles collect road information, which is directly linked to national security, mutual operation of autonomous vehicles between the U.S. and China is expected to be restricted due to U.S.-China tensions.

South Korea is conducting limited tests in areas such as Sangam-dong in Seoul and Hwaseong in Gyeonggi Province. Recently, it has introduced a temporary permit system for driverless autonomous vehicles, easing regulations. However, in the autonomous driving market, which requires investments in the trillions of KRW, it is assessed that independent survival of Korean companies will not be easy. Experts point out that strategic cooperation with global companies is inevitable.

Hyundai Motor recently announced plans to showcase an autonomous taxi based on the Ioniq 5 in collaboration with Google Waymo. This is interpreted as a strategy to utilize a global platform rather than developing independently. It appears to be a realistic approach learned from the failure of the Aptiv project.

Since autonomous vehicles require large amounts of power to run high-performance software, they inevitably rely on electric vehicles. Therefore, the expansion of the autonomous driving market is expected to have a positive impact on the electric vehicle and battery industries as well.

In particular, rapid advancements in artificial intelligence technologies such as generative AI have led to speculation that the commercialization of autonomous driving could occur sooner than expected. Experts forecast that the autonomous vehicle market will fully open within 2 to 3 years at the latest.

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