[The Editors' Verdict] Has Preparation for Trump 2.0 Already Fallen Through?

Recently, Chung Yongjin, Chairman of Shinsegae Group, made headlines after meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Despite the conversation lasting only about 15 minutes, the news that he was the first among South Korean politicians, diplomats, and business leaders to meet with Trump was met with enthusiasm in the market, and Shinsegae Group's stock price immediately hit the upper limit.

Let’s look at neighboring Japan. The meeting between President-elect Trump and Masayoshi Son, Chairman of SoftBank Japan, on the 16th (local time), was a clear demonstration of how thoroughly Japan is preparing for Trump’s second term.

The day before, following Akie Abe, wife of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Chairman Son also visited the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, bringing a package of gifts, including a “$100 billion investment.” In response, President-elect Trump reversed his previous stance of not meeting with foreign leaders before his inauguration and even said he could meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

So, what are we doing? On November 7, President-elect Trump asked President Yoon Suk-yeol for “help and cooperation from Korea in the shipbuilding industry” during a phone call, which was widely reported. The presidential office was particularly pleased that President-elect Trump spoke with President Yoon for as long as 12 minutes. On the same day, the call with Prime Minister Ishiba lasted only about five minutes, which was comparatively shorter.

A few days after the call, the presidential office announced that President Yoon had resumed golf practice for the first time in eight years, explaining that it was “because of golf diplomacy with President-elect Trump.” Since the overture seemed to come from Trump’s side, they were likely encouraged. However, it was later revealed that President Yoon had been playing golf since at least the end of August, and after the sudden 12·3 martial law incident on December 3, there were even claims that golf was not for diplomacy but for internal affairs.

As the end of 2024 approaches, I reread the columns I wrote throughout the year. Out of a total of 14 columns, six were about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, roughly half. Many of them warned that the Trump 2.0 era could become a reality and that we should prepare for it. If protectionism is strengthened and a tariff war is declared, the impact on the Korean economy-which has a high trade surplus with the U.S.-would be significant. Above all, Trump’s uniquely unpredictable “uncertainty” is a major obstacle.

The British current affairs weekly The Economist has been consistently warning since November last year that “the greatest risk facing the world in 2024 is Trump.” The Economist also advised, “If Trump’s second term begins, there will be major changes in the U.S.-centered world order, so preparations should be made quickly.”

The problem is that, even without proper preparation, the 12·3 martial law incident and the aftermath of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment motion have created a serious diplomatic vacuum with the U.S. In Washington’s diplomatic circles, it is believed that it will take at least a year for the next administration to properly reorganize and prepare for negotiations with the Trump camp. Although an immediate response to the new U.S. administration is crucial, normal diplomacy is difficult, inevitably weakening Korea’s position.

How did it come to the point where there are even concerns about a “Trump Korea passing” scenario? Unless the presidential office ignores the urgent calls and recommendations not to miss the golden time for preparing countermeasures before Trump’s second term begins, the situation could worsen. William Pesek’s column in Forbes, stating, “The cost of President Yoon’s self-serving martial law incident will be paid in installments by Korea’s 51 million people over time,” serves as a stark reminder of the persistent fear of low growth looming over the Korean economy. It is a phrase worth pondering over and over again.