IMF: Russia-Ukraine War May End as Early as Late 2025

IMF Presents Two Scenarios
Trump: "Will End Quickly If Elected"

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the Russia-Ukraine war, which broke out in February 2022, will end by the end of next year or around mid-2026.

Yonhap News

According to the Ukrainian daily Kyiv Independent on the 22nd (local time), the IMF released its latest forecast on the possible end of the Russia-Ukraine war, presenting the end of the war by late 2025 as the baseline scenario. In this case, Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 is expected to grow by 4%, an increase from previous forecasts.

The IMF predicted that inflation will rise to 10% due to factors such as rising food prices and currency depreciation. Ukraine is expected to achieve a GDP growth rate of 2.5-3.5% in 2025, considering improvements in energy supply capacity, income levels, and easing price pressures.

The second scenario is that the Russia-Ukraine war continues until mid-2026. The IMF expressed concern, stating, "In this negative scenario, more severe economic shocks may occur, including a slowdown in GDP recovery, rising inflation, and a fiscal deficit exceeding 20% until 2026."

In such a prolonged war scenario, Ukraine's external financing gap is expected to increase from the current $148 billion to $177.2 billion, resulting in international liquidity falling short of IMF standards until 2027.

Donald Trump, the President-elect of the United States, has repeatedly emphasized that he will end the Russia-Ukraine war quickly once in office. In his speech at 'America Fest 2024,' hosted by the youth conservative group 'Turning Point USA' in Phoenix, Arizona, Trump said, "(Ending the Russia-Ukraine war) is one of the things I want to do quickly," suggesting that he might meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin early in his term.

Meanwhile, the IMF completed the sixth review of Ukraine's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program the day before and approved an additional $1.1 billion (approximately 1.59 trillion won) in support. Including the $9.8 billion (approximately 14.19 trillion won) provided so far, the IMF plans to support a total of $15.6 billion (approximately 22.59 trillion won) over four years through the EFF.