[Presidential Candidate] ① Lee Jae-myung, Leading Impeachment Efforts Signals Green Light for Presidency... Variable is 'Judicial Risk'

Approval Rating Higher Than Combined Support for Ruling Party's Potential Candidates
Focus on Appeal Trial Results in Early Next Year

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, has emerged as the most prominent presidential candidate by leading the passage of the impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol in the plenary session. This is because he demonstrated leadership by spearheading the impeachment as the head of the main opposition party. As the possibility of an early presidential election next year increases, the political circle expects Lee to use the impeachment crisis management as a stepping stone to officially enter the presidential race.

Lee publicly revealed his stance as the leader of the ruling party immediately after President Yoon’s impeachment during a press conference at the National Assembly on the 15th. At this event, he proposed the formation of a bipartisan "National Stability Consultative Body" involving both the National Assembly and the government, stating, "The Democratic Party will actively cooperate with all parties to ensure national stability and restore international trust." Although he mentioned the National Assembly, this indicated that the Democratic Party would take the lead alongside the government to manage the emergency martial law and impeachment crisis.

If an early presidential election is held, the general consensus in political circles is that Lee is currently the frontrunner. This is because the so-called "New Three Kims"?Kim Dong-yeon, Governor of Gyeonggi Province; Kim Kyung-soo, former Governor of Gyeongnam Province; and Kim Boo-kyum, former Prime Minister?who are considered potential opposition candidates, have not shown a clear presence during this impeachment crisis.

There is also a poll result showing that Lee’s approval rating is higher than the combined support for all potential ruling party presidential candidates. According to a poll conducted by News1 through the polling agency Embrain Public on the 10th, surveying 1,005 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide, and released on the 12th, Lee’s approval rating stands at 37%. This is overwhelmingly higher compared to Han Dong-hoon, leader of the People Power Party (7%), former leader of the Innovation Party Cho Kuk (6%), Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo (5%), Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, and People Power Party lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo (4%). (95% confidence level ±3.1 percentage points, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website)

Lee’s strategy as the leader of the ruling party is particularly evident in his focus on livelihood and economic measures. In fact, during the impeachment crisis, he proposed and personally managed an emergency economic inspection meeting involving the ruling party, opposition, and government. Immediately after the impeachment motion passed, he introduced an additional supplementary budget aimed at supporting people’s livelihoods. Right after the impeachment, he urged party officials and aides, saying, "We have just overcome a small mountain. The civil war is not yet over," and "The Democratic Party must actively step forward to support the lives of citizens plunged into hardship." This revealed his intention to begin preparations for regime change.

The biggest variable in Lee’s presidential bid is the judicial risk. He is currently facing five trials simultaneously. On the 15th of last month, in the first trial for violating the Public Official Election Act, he was sentenced to one year in prison with a two-year probation, resulting in the loss of his eligibility to run for office. Legal experts believe that the results of the appeals and final trials are likely to be announced as early as the first half of next year. Depending on the outcome, the direction of the early presidential election could be affected. If Lee’s loss of parliamentary seat is confirmed before the election, he will be unable to run. The outcomes of other trials, including the perjury inducement appeal and allegations of remittances to North Korea, are also unpredictable.

The timing of the Constitutional Court’s decision on President Yoon’s impeachment is also considered a variable. If the Constitutional Court accepts the impeachment motion before Lee’s second trial verdict, the court may feel significant pressure in making a ruling that could determine the trajectory of the next presidential candidate.