Military Diplomacy Schedule Destabilized by Martial Law [Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club]

Neighboring Countries Cancel Diplomatic Schedules One After Another... US Skips Korea
Concerns Over Helplessness If North Korea Provokes Amid Military Leadership Vacuum

Since President Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of martial law, the military and diplomatic movements of neighboring countries have become unusual. Not only have they consecutively canceled scheduled diplomatic engagements with South Korea, but there are also concerns that next year's South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises might be disrupted.

Yonhap News

There are voices urging close attention to the U.S. sidelining South Korea. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited only Japan, excluding South Korea, causing significant setbacks in security consultations. Initially, Austin was reportedly planning to visit South Korea as well, but this time he decided not to. It appears that Austin was arranging a visit to South Korea in the near future but judged that now is not an appropriate time. The judgment that it is "not an appropriate time" is interpreted to be related to the martial law situation on the 3rd and the resignation of Kim Yong-hyun, South Korea's Minister of National Defense, who was Austin's counterpart.

On the 6th, ambassadors from the five countries belonging to the U.S.-led intelligence-sharing alliance, the Five Eyes, met in Seoul to discuss the martial law situation. The meeting reportedly focused on sharing information and responses from each country regarding the aftermath of martial law. A source explained, "Some countries have requested not to contact South Korean overseas mission chiefs dispatched by South Korea but to receive information related to South Korea only through ambassadors sent from their home countries," adding, "They are avoiding South Korea."

Earlier that day, Kim Jun-hyung, a member of the Innovation Party, stated at a plenary session of the National Assembly's Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, "At a meeting where ambassadors from the five major countries in South Korea gathered, there was even talk of boycotting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit if President Yoon Suk-yeol continues to attend."

The military readiness posture is also on high alert. It seems the U.S. is the first to express concern. On the 11th (local time), the U.S. Department of Defense commented on South Korea's impeachment turmoil, saying, "No actor wants to exploit this." Sabrina Singh, Deputy Spokesperson for the Department of Defense, responded to a question about the possibility of North Korean provocations amid South Korea's political chaos by saying this. She stated, "A democratic political process is currently underway in South Korea," and added, "We must allow this process to proceed."

Due to martial law, key military commanders are actually vacant. The Ministry of National Defense is currently led by Deputy Minister Kim Seon-ho acting as minister after former Minister Kim Yong-hyun, who led the martial law, was dismissed on the 5th. This acting minister system is the first since the founding of the armed forces in 1948.

Two generals from the Counterintelligence Command have also been suspended. This is a follow-up to the suspension of Lee Jin-woo, Capital Defense Command Commander; Kwak Jong-geun, Special Warfare Command Commander; and Yeo In-hyung, Counterintelligence Command Commander. The leadership of the Special Warfare Command and Counterintelligence Command, which play key roles in wartime and peacetime operations against North Korea, as well as the Capital Defense Command protecting the Seoul metropolitan area, are all currently vacant. The vacancies are expected to grow. More than ten active-duty soldiers are currently under investigation. The commanders of the 1st Airborne Brigade Lee Sang-hyun, 3rd Airborne Brigade Kim Jeong-geun, 9th Airborne Brigade Ahn Mu-seong, the 707 Special Mission Unit Commander, Special Operations Aviation Command Commander, and the Military Police Commander under the Capital Defense Command are also included in the Ministry of National Defense prosecution's investigation.

Martial law is expected to affect not only internal military training but also South Korea-U.S. joint exercises. The 4th South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting and the 1st NCG tabletop exercise (TTX), which were scheduled to be held in Washington D.C. on the 4th and 5th, have been indefinitely postponed due to the martial law situation. Subsequently, the regular South Korea-U.S. joint exercise "Freedom Shield" in March next year and the trilateral South Korea-U.S.-Japan joint exercise "Freedom Edge" may also face disruptions.