Japanese Media: "In 100 Years, Populations of Korea, China, and Japan Will Decrease to One-Third"

Japanese Media "Existing Population Forecasts Too Optimistic"
All Three Countries Without Exception Face 'Rapid Population Decline'

A Japanese business magazine, 'Weekly Gendai,' predicted that the populations of Korea, Japan, and China will shrink to one-third of their current sizes in the next century.

On the 11th (local time), the media released an article titled "Japan, China, Korea: Population Will Decrease to One-Third in 100 Years." This population forecast is based on birth rate projections announced by the Japan Foundation on the 3rd.

Japan is known to have experienced low birth rates and aging earlier than Korea or China, but recently the decline in birth rates has become more pronounced. According to the Japan Foundation, the birth rate, which was 1.20 last year, is estimated to have dropped to 1.15 this year.

An elderly woman is walking with the aid of a cane in Kawasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan. Photo by Yonhap News

Previously, a book titled Population Zero gained popularity in Japan. Written by economist Hiroshi Oonishi, the book raised concerns about Japan facing a "population collapse" due to a severe low birth rate trend. However, since the publication of this book, the low birth rate and aging phenomena in Korea, China, and Japan have intensified. The media explained that the future population projections from Population Zero were "overly optimistic" and that new estimates were created based on updated data.

As a result, Japan's population 100 years from now is projected to be only 37.99 million, about one-third of the current level. The media stated, "This may be shocking, but the current annual number of newborns does not even reach 700,000," and added, "This is even lower than the median value of past projections, meaning previous forecasts were off." If the current total fertility rate of 1.15 to 1.20 falls to 1.0, the population could collapse even faster, with elderly people expected to make up 50% of the total population.

Faced with this situation, Japan will have no choice but to "transfuse" most of its labor force from overseas. The media added that if Japan accepts 340,000 foreigners annually to compensate for the labor shortage, about 33% of Japan's population in a century will be foreigners.

This alarming population forecast is not limited to Japan alone. Applying similar estimates to China and Korea, Korea's population is projected to fall to 13.75 million by 2120, experiencing a much more severe decline than Japan's one-third reduction. China, a country with a population of 1.4 billion, is expected to shrink to around 350 million, about one-quarter of its current size.

The media emphasized, "All three countries?Korea, China, and Japan?must recognize that their future populations could shrink drastically," adding, "Without exception, the populations of the three countries will decrease to one-third or one-quarter in 100 years."

They also pointed out that population forecasts made in the 2010s were overly "rosy" compared to the current situations in Korea, China, and Japan, criticizing that "(Japanese statisticians) were overly optimistic about future average life expectancy and total fertility rates."