Overseas Betting Site "President Yoon Impeachment Probability? 14%" Plummets

Opposition, All Except Ahn Cheol-soo Walk Out
Yoon Impeachment Motion Effectively Rejected

Amid the ongoing vote on the impeachment motion, the probability of President Yoon Seok-yeol stepping down within this year has plummeted to 14% on overseas betting sites.

Photo by Polymarket, screen capture

As of 5 p.m. on the 7th, on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based betting site, the probability of President Yoon being impeached in 2024 was shown to be 14%. The impeachment probability had been rising after Han Dong-hoon, the leader of the People Power Party, shifted his stance to support impeachment the previous day. However, following President Yoon’s public apology that morning, voices opposing impeachment within the People Power Party grew louder, causing the probability to drop sharply. The total betting amount on this question reached $2,503,975.

At 10 a.m. that day, President Yoon, in a public address, stated, "I deeply apologize for causing anxiety and inconvenience to the people during the process of declaring martial law," and added, "I will not evade legal and political responsibility related to this martial law declaration." He further said, "I will entrust the future political stability measures, including my term, to our party," and "Going forward, the administration of state affairs will be jointly handled by our party and the government."

On the afternoon of the 7th, ahead of the vote on the impeachment motion against President Yoon Seok-yeol, Ahn Cheol-soo was the only member of the People Power Party present in the empty National Assembly plenary session hall. Photo by Yonhap News

Following President Yoon’s public apology and his expressed intention to step back from frontline politics, it is reported that even the minority faction within the People Power Party who supported impeachment has turned against it.

On the afternoon of the 7th, the National Assembly convened a plenary session and tabled the 'Impeachment Motion against President Yoon Seok-yeol,' but all People Power Party members left the plenary hall, leading to assessments that the motion was effectively rejected. For the impeachment motion to pass, more than 200 out of the 300 current members of the National Assembly must vote in favor. However, People Power Party members attended the plenary session only to vote on the 'Kim Geon-hee Special Prosecutor Act' before leaving. Among the People Power Party members, only Assemblyman Ahn Cheol-soo remained in the plenary hall. With 192 opposition lawmakers and Assemblyman Ahn Cheol-soo’s vote, the total would be 193 votes, making it impossible for the impeachment motion to pass.