[Global Focus] Ukraine War Surpasses 1000 Days... Inside the Crossroads of Escalation

Deployment of North Korean Troops Prompts US, UK, France to Allow Long-Range Missiles
Russia Counters by Playing 'Nuclear Card'
Trump Victory a 'Turning Point'... "Aimed at US Presidential Inauguration Day"

The Russia-Ukraine war has surpassed 1,000 days and is heading into its third winter, but the conflict is intensifying. Although the possibility of a ceasefire agreement is being discussed ahead of the return of Donald Trump as U.S. president, both sides are fiercely clashing with missile attacks.

Over the past three years, Russia has forcibly annexed Ukrainian territories including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, occupying about one-fifth of Ukraine’s land. Ukraine invaded Kursk in Russia but lost about 40% of the occupied areas. Overall, the front lines have been maintained without significant changes since the early stages of the war.

Shift in War Situation as US, UK, and France Allow Long-Range Missiles

However, the atmosphere changed recently as the United States, followed by the United Kingdom and France, suddenly lifted the ban on supplying long-range missiles. This effectively permits attacks on Russian mainland.

On the 19th (local time), Ukraine struck the Russian mainland for the first time since the war began using the U.S.-made surface-to-surface missile ATACMS, and on the 20th, the UK’s air-to-surface cruise missile Storm Shadow was used for a second consecutive day. On the 23rd, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian stated in a media interview that Ukraine could launch French long-range missiles at Russia under the logic of self-defense. There is speculation that Ukraine might deploy France’s SCALP missile as well. SCALP and Storm Shadow are jointly developed missiles by the UK and France and are essentially the same. NATO countries, which had been reluctant to supply weapons capable of striking the Russian mainland, have changed their stance. Additionally, U.S. President Joe Biden reversed the ban on anti-personnel mines reinstated in 2022 and decided to supply anti-personnel mines to Ukraine.

The reason for the Western countries’ shift in posture is the deployment of North Korean troops last month. Russia, after receiving artillery shells from North Korea, deployed North Korean forces to the western border area of Kursk, intensifying pressure on Ukraine. CNN also reported sightings of North Korean troops in Ukrainian territories such as Mariupol and Kharkiv. Western countries view this as a signal of “massive escalation.” The BBC explained, "The West sent a signal to the world through rapid decisions over several days that support for Ukraine will not disappear."

Russia Pulls 'Nuclear Card' and Strikes Back Daily... Warning to South Korea

Russia strongly retaliated and launched daily counterattacks. On the 19th, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded with the “nuclear card.” He revised the nuclear doctrine to allow the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers. This effectively includes Ukraine as a nuclear attack target. On the 21st, Russia struck Dnipro in Ukraine with the latest medium-range missile system “Oreshnik (Hazel),” sending a strong warning message to Ukraine and its allies. The U.S. Department of Defense stated that the missile could be equipped with a nuclear warhead after modifications.

On the 24th, Russia warned South Korea, saying, "If South Korean weapons are used to kill Russian citizens, the bilateral relationship could be completely destroyed."

AP News assessed, "A new chapter in the nearly three-year-long war has opened," stating, "It began when President Biden changed long-standing policy to authorize U.S.-made long-range missiles to Ukraine and ended with Russia attacking Ukraine with new ballistic weapons. This has alarmed the international community and heightened fears of further escalation."

According to the United Nations, at least 12,162 civilians have died and 26,919 have been injured due to the war in Ukraine. The population, which was 43 million in 2022, has decreased to 35 million, a reduction of about one-fifth. The economic damage is severe as well. According to Ukrainian authorities, the economy has shrunk to 78% of its pre-war size.

Russia has also suffered significant losses. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced on the 1st that Russian military casualties exceed 1,200 per day, with total casualties estimated at around 700,000. The Russian economy is also deteriorating. Due to economic sanctions and war funding, inflation has surged, prompting the Russian central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate to 21% annually last month.

Donetsk region of Ukraine occupied by Russia. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News.

'Ceasefire Within 24 Hours'?Final Tensions Ahead of Trump’s Presidency

The reason the war is escalating despite heavy damage on both sides and the risk of further escalation is the change in the U.S. administration. Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election became a turning point. The president-elect, who will take office in January next year, is negative about Biden administration’s support for Ukraine. He has shown friendship with President Putin and repeatedly promised during his campaign to "end the Ukraine war within 24 hours." Mike Waltz, a U.S. House Representative and nominee for White House National Security Advisor, clearly stated that Trump believes the war must end, saying, "What we need to discuss is who sits at the negotiating table, whether it’s an agreement or a ceasefire, how to get both sides to the table, and what the framework of the deal will be." In this atmosphere where a ceasefire seems imminent, both sides are engaging in last-minute tensions to gain an advantageous position in negotiations. Especially, the possibility that Ukraine might give up Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula is being seriously considered, making Ukraine desperate to hold onto every inch of land.

Phillips O’Brien, a strategic studies professor at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, said, "The president-elect Trump may try to forcibly end the war by stopping arms supplies to Ukraine," adding, "If Trump halts support to Ukraine and leads to a ceasefire, Russia will want to secure as much territory as possible now."

Although it appears to be a “tit-for-tat” confrontation, some analyses suggest there is no significant damage. The New York Times (NYT) stated, "Long-range missile battles are occurring alongside frontline combat but have not noticeably affected ground warfare," suggesting "they are being conducted more for political than military purposes." Both the Western missiles Ukraine launched at Russia and the new missiles Russia used to counterattack Ukraine are not weapons likely to have a meaningful impact on the war situation. In fact, there was speculation that the new missile “Oreshnik” used by Russia to strike Dnipro on the 21st was equipped with a dummy warhead. Roman Kostenko, chairman of Ukraine’s parliamentary defense and intelligence committee, said the crater caused by the missile strike was only about 1.5 meters wide and there was no noticeable damage around it, adding, "If the missile was indeed launched empty, we should understand it as a purely demonstrative attack rather than a real military purpose."

Valentin Badrak, a military analyst at the Russian Research Center (CRS), said in an interview with Ukrainian media, "Putin’s actions are not aimed at today or tomorrow but at January 20, when Trump becomes president," adding, "He wants to have more influence on Trump and negotiate for more."